比特币再陷“5月抛售”争论，历史熊市规律是否重现引发市场关注
Odaily星球日报讯 围绕比特币是否重演“sell in May（5 月扒手）”模式，市场分析师出现明显分歧。部分分析认为，在美国中期选举年中，比特币历史上曾两次在 5 月出现显著回调：2018 年从约 1 万美元跌至 7000 美元，2022 年则从 4 万美元附近下挫近 30%，随后进一步跌至 2 万美元区间。基于这一规律，有观点警告 2026 年或再次进入类似熊市结构。
加密分析师 Merlijn Enkelaar 表示，该周期“具有高度重复性”，若历史重演，BTC 甚至可能回落至 3.3 万美元，即便当前仍有 CLARITY 法案推进、政策利好及贸易改善预期。Alphractal CEO João Wedson 则指出，当价格持续低于 7.8 万美元时，市场进入更高概率的“投降阶段”，空头动能正在增强。
但也有反对观点认为，历史下跌背后实际由更具体宏观冲击驱动，包括流动性收紧、行业黑天鹅事件及监管冲击，而非单纯季节性规律。CoinEx 首席分析师 Jeff Ko 强调，如今 ETF 资金、机构配置与企业持仓已显著改变市场结构，因此不太可能重现过去 70%–80%的极端跌幅。
当前 BTC 价格约在 7.69 万美元附近，关键支撑位被认为在 7.6 万美元区域，一旦失守，或将打开更深调整空间。（Cointelegraph）
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