Phyrex.Ni
Phyrex.Ni
No extravagance, no waste
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From my years of experience, KOLs are the foundation of the entire cryptocurrency space, merely a step above retail investors. The so-called KOL round profits are also very limited. If a KOL has not made any contributions in their ecological niche, they are basically just big accounts that are like ants. Whether in investment or advertising, KOLs have a physical limit on their profits.
In 2026, the biggest profit for KOLs will be helping dog investors as white gloves. This profit is much larger than that of the KOL round. The louder the KOL's voice, the easier it is to be a white glove. This profit is both large and stable, requiring almost no risk on their part. As long as the voice is loud enough, money can be made.
In fact, the most prevalent issue right now isn't content rewriting, because the traffic gained from rewriting is limited. Instead, it's the easiest to transport high-traffic content from other platforms, especially short videos, which are also quite difficult to "rewrite." I've heard that there is already an industry chain for taking advantage of X.
Crazy acquisitions or collaborations with high-profile X accounts, then continuously transporting short videos from other platforms, can be done without human involvement; you just need to come up with an eye-catching name.
OPEC+ has agreed in principle with seven countries to increase production quotas by approximately 188,000 barrels per day in June.
Currently, the combined quota for these seven OPEC+ countries in May is about 30.258 million barrels per day. If the increase in June is implemented, the theoretical quota will rise to about 30.446 million barrels per day.
For WTI, although the increase of 188,000 barrels per day is not significant, it does impact market expectations.
Currently, the biggest support for WTI remains the war premium brought about by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran. If negotiations with Iran continue to progress and passage through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, combined with the increase in OPEC+, it will become more challenging for WTI to maintain above $100.
It is very likely that WTI prices will fall below $100 on Monday.
Continue to hold short positions on WTI at high levels.
Phyrex.Ni
Trump told Congress that hostile actions against Iran have ceased, and there is no need for authorization for actions against Iran.
Iranian officials are calling for a permanent end to this war on all fronts and guarantee that it will not resume and will not be struck again.
They expressed deep mistrust towards the United States, as Iran has suffered two attacks in less than a year. They also linked any progress to the lifting of the (U.S.) blockade on Iranian ports.
They stated that they are particularly willing to advance negotiations if the deadlock related to the blockade is resolved.
I have started making profits from shorting WTI; it has really been a pressure-filled journey to short it all the way down, and I have mentioned the principles of shorting many times. I hope to return to below $90 soon.
Trump may give Iran some time before resuming military action.
Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State General Mark Kimmitt stated that Trump may follow through on his threats against Iran, and if Iran is unwilling to reach an agreement, the U.S. will resume the use of military force.
"I think Trump will give the Iranians a little time," Kimmitt told Al Jazeera.
Kimmitt said that Iran presented a proposal today, but it was rejected by Trump, and he believes it is better to wait for a few more proposals to be put on the table before drawing any conclusions.
"The key issue he wants to see from the Iranians is a definite date to start negotiations," Kimmitt said.
However, he added that if Iran continues to show unwillingness to negotiate over its nuclear capabilities, Trump will ultimately say, "We are going back to war until they take it seriously."
Even so, the U.S. acknowledges that Iran still retains about 40% to 60% of its drone and missile capabilities, Kimmitt said, despite its air defense systems no longer existing.
This makes Iran vulnerable to ongoing airstrikes, so if U.S.-Iran conflict resumes, "I think we will see Chapter Two, which will basically be very similar to Chapter One that we saw in March," Kimmitt said.
Trump is completely opposed to the suggestion of pausing Iran's nuclear development, stating that Iran must commit to never pursuing the path of developing nuclear weapons. This is his absolute red line and the point he believes forms the foundation of his position.
Phyrex.Ni
Trump told Congress that hostile actions against Iran have ceased, and there is no need for authorization for actions against Iran.
Iranian officials are calling for a permanent end to this war on all fronts and guarantee that it will not resume and will not be struck again.
They expressed deep mistrust towards the United States, as Iran has suffered two attacks in less than a year. They also linked any progress to the lifting of the (U.S.) blockade on Iranian ports.
They stated that they are particularly willing to advance negotiations if the deadlock related to the blockade is resolved.
I have started making profits from shorting WTI; it has really been a pressure-filled journey to short it all the way down, and I have mentioned the principles of shorting many times. I hope to return to below $90 soon.
Trump told Congress that hostile actions against Iran have ceased, and there is no need for authorization for actions against Iran.
Iranian officials are calling for a permanent end to this war on all fronts and guarantee that it will not resume and will not be struck again.
They expressed deep mistrust towards the United States, as Iran has suffered two attacks in less than a year. They also linked any progress to the lifting of the (U.S.) blockade on Iranian ports.
They stated that they are particularly willing to advance negotiations if the deadlock related to the blockade is resolved.
I have started making profits from shorting WTI; it has really been a pressure-filled journey to short it all the way down, and I have mentioned the principles of shorting many times. I hope to return to below $90 soon.
As for the current safety in Dubai, I know that many local enterprises have started to venture into the field of real estate RWA. This change in residency visas is aimed at facilitating the fragmentation of real estate ownership, lowering the threshold for overseas investors to reside in Dubai.
Dr. Bu Abdullah
Dubai Just Dropped the AED 750K Investor Visa Floor to ZERO 👀🇦🇪
Major update for property investors:
The AED 750,000 minimum property value for Dubai’s 2-year investor visa is gone.
New rule, effective this week:
If you’re the sole owner of any property in Dubai, you can now apply for investor residency. No floor, no threshold.
What changed for joint ownership:
Each investor needs an AED 400,000 share. Two people buying an AED 800,000 apartment can both qualify now — which wasn’t possible before.
Who wins from this 👇
First-time buyers 🏠
You can enter the market below AED 750K and still get residency. Studio and 1BR buyers are now in the game.
Couples & partners 💑
Joint purchases now give both investors residency rights. One property, two visas.
Smaller investors 💼
Priced out before? The barrier just disappeared. Dubai opened the door to a wider pool of global talent and capital.
The bigger signal 📡
While many countries make residency and investment more complex, Dubai keeps simplifying. Faster process. Lower barriers. More attractive to live, not just invest.
This isn’t just about real estate. It’s about attracting people who want to build a life here, not just park capital.
Smart policy creates smart growth 📈
I remember discussing this with @Murphychen888 M before, and the final conclusion is that the newly acquired $BTC by long-term holders can also be considered as long-term held Bitcoin to some extent. This extent refers to the average holding time of each new Bitcoin after it enters the wallet.
However, it is true that the official explanation from GlassNode is not very clear, but it’s not a big deal. For us ordinary investors, the data shows that the Bitcoin held long-term is increasing, which is the most important data, as it indicates that the Bitcoin willing to participate in trading is decreasing.
Currently, the long-term held BTC has exceeded 73.77%, and a portion of the remaining short-term held BTC is gradually turning into long-term holdings.
I warmly welcome discussions from everyone. Little Chu @riyuexiaochu, I almost forgot to mention this. Thanks to M for directly asking someone from the GlassNode team.
Murphychen
I used to be confused about how long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) are specifically classified. If there is a misunderstanding of the logic behind the data, it can lead to biased or even incorrect analysis.
To address this, I had an in-depth discussion with the Glassnode developer team regarding the algorithms and definitions of LTH and STH. To date, there should not be a comprehensive analysis and explanation in the Chinese community.
I happened to see Ni Da @PhyrexNi and Teacher Xiao Chu @riyuexiaochu discussing this topic, so I’ll try to explain:
Step one, to determine the exact threshold for distinguishing STH and LTH based on coin age, Glassnode analyzed the slope of the probability curve of UTXOs being spent over various time periods. The result showed that in each case, the maximum slope of the sample occurred at a coin age of exactly 155 days.
In other words, the probability of BTC being moved again is minimized only after holding for at least 155 days. Therefore, we use 155 days as the basic distinction standard between LTH and STH.
Step two, based on this, Glassnode engineers also considered the average time each on-chain entity has held since the purchase date. If this time exceeds 155 days, the entity is considered a long-term holder.
For example, if I have 10 BTC in my wallet held for 300 days, and today I buy 5 BTC held for 1 day, then the average time is: (10*300+5*1)÷15=200 days; this time is greater than 155 days, so the 5 BTC I bought today will be classified as long-term holders.
Step three, to refine the sharp classification threshold and convert it into a smooth weighting factor curve, Glassnode used a logistic function with a midpoint of 155 days and a transition width of 10 days.
This way, the curve will be smoother and will not suddenly spike or drop. Generally speaking, if held for about 177 days, 90% of the Bitcoin will be classified into the LTH supply.
So, in summary, the increase in net holdings of LTH indicates two points:
🚩 1. Older LTHs are increasing their holdings, as long as the average holding time of BTC in the wallet is greater than 155 days;
🚩 2. BTC held by STHs has been held, and after about 177 days, it becomes new LTH;
However, an increase in net holdings of LTH does not mean that LTHs are not selling.
For example, looking at Chart 4: from July 7, 2025, to now, LTHs have cumulatively spent 5.747 million BTC, but the actual net holdings of LTH have only decreased by 44,000 BTC. This indicates that while LTHs are spending, a large number of STHs are holding steady, thus replenishing the LTH.
Since February 14, 2026, the net holdings of LTH have resumed an upward trend, indicating that the total number of old LTHs increasing their holdings plus STHs holding steady and transitioning to new LTHs has exceeded the amount spent by LTHs.
For the market, this means that the pressure from the supply side has decreased. As the demand side continues to accumulate with the improvement of the macro environment, we will gradually emerge from the swamp of the bear market.
The benefits of shorting WTI on cryptocurrency platforms are the ability to use high leverage, while the downside is the funding rate.
The advantages of shorting WTI through brokers or traditional futures accounts are lower costs and prices that are closer to the actual crude oil futures market, but the downside is that the leverage is not as high.
If it's just a short-term gamble, for example, judging that the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz has been overvalued, then the advantage of cryptocurrency platforms lies in their flexibility, speed, and high leverage, making them suitable for a quick emotional pullback.
However, if it's a medium to long-term judgment, such as believing that oil prices cannot sustainably hold above $120 or $130, then brokers or traditional futures accounts are actually more suitable.
Especially in cryptocurrency platforms, if the funding rate remains persistently high, even if the direction is ultimately correct, one might still be slowly ground down in the process.
Setting the liquidation price around $138 is actually a very smart move. Because the historical highest price for WTI is around $147 in 2008. Breaking through this historical high is not easy.
Once oil prices enter the $120, $130, or $140 range, demand destruction will occur quickly; aviation, shipping, chemicals, and gasoline consumption will all be compressed, and rising inflation will force central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance, ultimately hitting the economy and crude oil demand.
In the latest survey, although analysts have raised their oil price forecasts, the expected average price for WTI in 2026 is only $80.07 per barrel, indicating that the mainstream baseline scenario is still not one of breaking through historical highs in the long term.
I have always believed in being bearish; shorting WTI is fine, but there must be a relatively high liquidation price as a guarantee.
Ai姨
The oil short sellers on Hyperliquid are losing money while paying funding fees 🥲
Address 0x60a…685f6 added 1.2 million USDC as margin to Hyperliquid ten minutes ago to raise the liquidation price of the oil short position.
Currently, he holds short positions of 103,000 $CL and 21,000 $BRENTOIL, with a total value of $13.58 million, an unrealized loss of $1.8 million, and the latest liquidation prices are $138.48 and $144.64, with funding fees reaching as high as $240,000.
Portal 👉
