Phyrex.Ni
Phyrex.Ni
No extravagance, no waste
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The impact of the UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+ on oil prices
Brother Wu @qinbafrank has already explained the impact of the UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+. I see that some friends in the comments are worried about whether oil prices will continue to rise as a result.
But in fact, from a long-term perspective, the UAE's exit from OPEC+ is not the core reason for rising oil prices; rather, it is likely to suppress oil prices.
Today, both WTI and Brent have surpassed $100, which is essentially not because of the UAE's exit, but because the market is trading on the risks of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
In other words, the core of the current rise in oil prices is:
Transport disruptions + geopolitical risks + supply uncertainties.
It is not because the oil on the market will decrease after the UAE exits OPEC+. On the contrary, the core of the UAE's exit is not to reduce oil production, but to avoid being restricted by OPEC+'s production quotas.
Previously, although the UAE had the capacity to increase production and exports, it could not casually raise output due to the OPEC+ production reduction framework. Now, if it exits OPEC+, this restriction will be lifted, and the UAE will actually have greater room for increasing production.
So in the short term, oil prices may continue to maintain high volatility due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, and maritime risks, and may even continue to rise.
But in the medium to long term, if the Strait of Hormuz becomes clear again and the geopolitical risk premium starts to decline, then the UAE's exit from OPEC+ will actually become a factor pushing oil prices down.
Because the market ultimately trades on supply and demand relationships.
If the UAE increases production, global oil supply will increase. If Saudi Arabia is also forced to adjust its strategy to maintain market share, then OPEC+'s ability to control prices will further decline.
In the most extreme case, oil-producing countries will re-enter the game of whether to protect prices or market share.
If everyone chooses to protect prices, then oil prices can remain high. But if some countries start to grab market share, oil prices will be significantly suppressed.
For the current situation, if the issues in the Strait of Hormuz are not resolved soon, oil prices will still carry a risk premium. But if the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers and the UAE begins to release production capacity, then a drop in oil prices is inevitable; it's just a matter of time.
So my judgment is: the UAE's exit from OPEC+ is not the main reason for rising oil prices in the short term, but in the medium to long term, it is a potential bearish factor for oil prices.
This is my personal opinion; I still recommend shorting WTI at high prices.
Many data points have shown that investors are very interested in buying Bitcoin at prices between $60,000 and $80,000, willing to spend real money. However, looking at the historical cycles of $BTC, Bitcoin has not entered a true bear market since March 2023; even now, it is at the transition between a bull market and a bear market.
Whether Bitcoin will enter another bear market in this cycle is still uncertain.
Phyrex.Ni
In less than three months, long-term holders have increased their holdings of Bitcoin by over 330,000 coins.
Many friends have privately messaged me asking if the previous $BTC price around $60,000 was the bottom, and if we have already passed the last dip.
From my personal perspective, the last dip definitely hasn't happened yet, but whether it will happen is uncertain. In my definition, the last dip corresponds to a significant drop similar to an "economic recession," but currently, I haven't seen that. Even when the price fell to $60,000, the U.S. economy did not show any obvious signs of recession.
So, it's hard to say if this is the bottom, but I've been saying in my daily updates that Bitcoin below $70,000 is very attractive for investors.
From the data of Bitcoin that has not moved for over 155 days, we can see that in the past year, when Bitcoin's price was below $70,000, long-term holders significantly increased their BTC holdings, with over 330,000 Bitcoins bought by long-term holders during this period.
Correspondingly, the BTC supply on exchanges has been continuously decreasing, which also indicates:
1. Low prices not only do not make long-term holders capitulate, but instead encourage them to increase their holdings.
2. Prices below $70,000 have become a bottom-buying expectation for many investors.
3. Currently, the long-term held BTC is nearly 1.477 million, just under 60,000 Bitcoins away from the historical peak.
4. The vast majority of BTC holders are not interested in the short-term price movements of Bitcoin.
5. More and more investors are losing interest in short-term trading of Bitcoin (as evidenced by the decrease in exchange supply).
Therefore, it's hard for me to say that Bitcoin is currently in the bottom range, but it can be seen that investors are at least very interested in costs below $70,000. Even now, with BTC approaching $80,000, investor buying has not noticeably slowed down.
Investors are accumulating between $60,000 and $80,000 for $BTC. What if it continues to rebound beyond $80,000?
Previously, we have seen a lot of data indicating that there are indeed significant accumulation signs from investors when the price of Bitcoin is between $60,000 and $80,000. So, if the rebound is not over and Bitcoin can continue to rise, will investors continue to accumulate?
From the current positions of Bitcoin on exchanges, it is clear that as we approach $80,000, the accumulation by investors has not only not weakened significantly, but rather maintains a strong purchasing power. This level of purchasing power is only second to January 2025, when Trump had just won the election, and the market atmosphere was exceptionally high.
Now, although the price of Bitcoin is not ideal, the trend of investor accumulation remains very strong. Considering that the U.S. stock market has continuously broken new highs, many investors are likely willing to position themselves in $BTC as part of sector rotation expectations.
Therefore, based on the current trend, as long as there are no significant negative factors, and the U.S. stock market can maintain an upward trend, investors may continue to maintain purchases after Bitcoin rebounds and breaks $80,000, until the U.S. stock market encounters resistance or macroeconomic dangers arise.
Phyrex.Ni
In less than three months, long-term holders have increased their holdings of Bitcoin by over 330,000 coins.
Many friends have privately messaged me asking if the previous $BTC price around $60,000 was the bottom, and if we have already passed the last dip.
From my personal perspective, the last dip definitely hasn't happened yet, but whether it will happen is uncertain. In my definition, the last dip corresponds to a significant drop similar to an "economic recession," but currently, I haven't seen that. Even when the price fell to $60,000, the U.S. economy did not show any obvious signs of recession.
So, it's hard to say if this is the bottom, but I've been saying in my daily updates that Bitcoin below $70,000 is very attractive for investors.
From the data of Bitcoin that has not moved for over 155 days, we can see that in the past year, when Bitcoin's price was below $70,000, long-term holders significantly increased their BTC holdings, with over 330,000 Bitcoins bought by long-term holders during this period.
Correspondingly, the BTC supply on exchanges has been continuously decreasing, which also indicates:
1. Low prices not only do not make long-term holders capitulate, but instead encourage them to increase their holdings.
2. Prices below $70,000 have become a bottom-buying expectation for many investors.
3. Currently, the long-term held BTC is nearly 1.477 million, just under 60,000 Bitcoins away from the historical peak.
4. The vast majority of BTC holders are not interested in the short-term price movements of Bitcoin.
5. More and more investors are losing interest in short-term trading of Bitcoin (as evidenced by the decrease in exchange supply).
Therefore, it's hard for me to say that Bitcoin is currently in the bottom range, but it can be seen that investors are at least very interested in costs below $70,000. Even now, with BTC approaching $80,000, investor buying has not noticeably slowed down.
The data discussed earlier pertains to Bitcoin, and there have been significant changes in the funding situation of cryptocurrencies themselves recently. Although there was a clear buying sentiment from investors when $BTC was between $60,000 and $70,000, the recent capital flow indicates that a large amount of money has left the cryptocurrency market. After all, apart from Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies, including $ETH, have already entered a bear market based on the data.
However, since Bitcoin reached $70,000 and now approaches $80,000, the amount of capital in the market has not only stopped decreasing but has actually been gradually increasing. Especially in the past week, we can see that the main capital in the market has shifted from net outflow to net inflow.
Although it is uncertain how long this inflow can be sustained, if the incoming funds can continue to be guaranteed, it will easily drive the price of Bitcoin to continue rising. After all, data has shown that more and more BTC is flowing towards long-term and high-net-worth investors.
Phyrex.Ni
In less than three months, long-term holders have increased their holdings of Bitcoin by over 330,000 coins.
Many friends have privately messaged me asking if the previous $BTC price around $60,000 was the bottom, and if we have already passed the last dip.
From my personal perspective, the last dip definitely hasn't happened yet, but whether it will happen is uncertain. In my definition, the last dip corresponds to a significant drop similar to an "economic recession," but currently, I haven't seen that. Even when the price fell to $60,000, the U.S. economy did not show any obvious signs of recession.
So, it's hard to say if this is the bottom, but I've been saying in my daily updates that Bitcoin below $70,000 is very attractive for investors.
From the data of Bitcoin that has not moved for over 155 days, we can see that in the past year, when Bitcoin's price was below $70,000, long-term holders significantly increased their BTC holdings, with over 330,000 Bitcoins bought by long-term holders during this period.
Correspondingly, the BTC supply on exchanges has been continuously decreasing, which also indicates:
1. Low prices not only do not make long-term holders capitulate, but instead encourage them to increase their holdings.
2. Prices below $70,000 have become a bottom-buying expectation for many investors.
3. Currently, the long-term held BTC is nearly 1.477 million, just under 60,000 Bitcoins away from the historical peak.
4. The vast majority of BTC holders are not interested in the short-term price movements of Bitcoin.
5. More and more investors are losing interest in short-term trading of Bitcoin (as evidenced by the decrease in exchange supply).
Therefore, it's hard for me to say that Bitcoin is currently in the bottom range, but it can be seen that investors are at least very interested in costs below $70,000. Even now, with BTC approaching $80,000, investor buying has not noticeably slowed down.
The sell-off transferred to exchanges is often the most direct reflection of investor sentiment. From the current data, it is clear that during the recent period when Bitcoin's price was between $60,000 and $80,000, the transfer sell-off of $BTC has significantly decreased.
This means that more and more investors are not very interested in selling Bitcoin, which is also why I say that low prices have made it difficult for investors to capitulate.
Phyrex.Ni
In less than three months, long-term holders have increased their holdings of Bitcoin by over 330,000 coins.
Many friends have privately messaged me asking if the previous $BTC price around $60,000 was the bottom, and if we have already passed the last dip.
From my personal perspective, the last dip definitely hasn't happened yet, but whether it will happen is uncertain. In my definition, the last dip corresponds to a significant drop similar to an "economic recession," but currently, I haven't seen that. Even when the price fell to $60,000, the U.S. economy did not show any obvious signs of recession.
So, it's hard to say if this is the bottom, but I've been saying in my daily updates that Bitcoin below $70,000 is very attractive for investors.
From the data of Bitcoin that has not moved for over 155 days, we can see that in the past year, when Bitcoin's price was below $70,000, long-term holders significantly increased their BTC holdings, with over 330,000 Bitcoins bought by long-term holders during this period.
Correspondingly, the BTC supply on exchanges has been continuously decreasing, which also indicates:
1. Low prices not only do not make long-term holders capitulate, but instead encourage them to increase their holdings.
2. Prices below $70,000 have become a bottom-buying expectation for many investors.
3. Currently, the long-term held BTC is nearly 1.477 million, just under 60,000 Bitcoins away from the historical peak.
4. The vast majority of BTC holders are not interested in the short-term price movements of Bitcoin.
5. More and more investors are losing interest in short-term trading of Bitcoin (as evidenced by the decrease in exchange supply).
Therefore, it's hard for me to say that Bitcoin is currently in the bottom range, but it can be seen that investors are at least very interested in costs below $70,000. Even now, with BTC approaching $80,000, investor buying has not noticeably slowed down.
Not only does the data from long-term holders show that investors are very interested in $BTC below $70,000, but the distribution data of Bitcoin holdings also clearly reflects this.
When the price of Bitcoin is between $60,000 and $80,000, high-net-worth investors holding more than 10 Bitcoins are consistently in a trend of increasing their holdings.
Moreover, even small-scale investors holding less than 10 Bitcoins have also shown significant buying activity during this period. A rare trend of "nationwide accumulation" has emerged.
This means that not only high-net-worth investors but also small-scale investors (retail investors) are buying Bitcoin and are currently primarily holding onto it.
Phyrex.Ni
In less than three months, long-term holders have increased their holdings of Bitcoin by over 330,000 coins.
Many friends have privately messaged me asking if the previous $BTC price around $60,000 was the bottom, and if we have already passed the last dip.
From my personal perspective, the last dip definitely hasn't happened yet, but whether it will happen is uncertain. In my definition, the last dip corresponds to a significant drop similar to an "economic recession," but currently, I haven't seen that. Even when the price fell to $60,000, the U.S. economy did not show any obvious signs of recession.
So, it's hard to say if this is the bottom, but I've been saying in my daily updates that Bitcoin below $70,000 is very attractive for investors.
From the data of Bitcoin that has not moved for over 155 days, we can see that in the past year, when Bitcoin's price was below $70,000, long-term holders significantly increased their BTC holdings, with over 330,000 Bitcoins bought by long-term holders during this period.
Correspondingly, the BTC supply on exchanges has been continuously decreasing, which also indicates:
1. Low prices not only do not make long-term holders capitulate, but instead encourage them to increase their holdings.
2. Prices below $70,000 have become a bottom-buying expectation for many investors.
3. Currently, the long-term held BTC is nearly 1.477 million, just under 60,000 Bitcoins away from the historical peak.
4. The vast majority of BTC holders are not interested in the short-term price movements of Bitcoin.
5. More and more investors are losing interest in short-term trading of Bitcoin (as evidenced by the decrease in exchange supply).
Therefore, it's hard for me to say that Bitcoin is currently in the bottom range, but it can be seen that investors are at least very interested in costs below $70,000. Even now, with BTC approaching $80,000, investor buying has not noticeably slowed down.
In less than three months, long-term holders have increased their holdings of Bitcoin by over 330,000 coins.
Many friends have privately messaged me asking if the previous $BTC price around $60,000 was the bottom, and if we have already passed the last dip.
From my personal perspective, the last dip definitely hasn't happened yet, but whether it will happen is uncertain. In my definition, the last dip corresponds to a significant drop similar to an "economic recession," but currently, I haven't seen that. Even when the price fell to $60,000, the U.S. economy did not show any obvious signs of recession.
So, it's hard to say if this is the bottom, but I've been saying in my daily updates that Bitcoin below $70,000 is very attractive for investors.
From the data of Bitcoin that has not moved for over 155 days, we can see that in the past year, when Bitcoin's price was below $70,000, long-term holders significantly increased their BTC holdings, with over 330,000 Bitcoins bought by long-term holders during this period.
Correspondingly, the BTC supply on exchanges has been continuously decreasing, which also indicates:
1. Low prices not only do not make long-term holders capitulate, but instead encourage them to increase their holdings.
2. Prices below $70,000 have become a bottom-buying expectation for many investors.
3. Currently, the long-term held BTC is nearly 1.477 million, just under 60,000 Bitcoins away from the historical peak.
4. The vast majority of BTC holders are not interested in the short-term price movements of Bitcoin.
5. More and more investors are losing interest in short-term trading of Bitcoin (as evidenced by the decrease in exchange supply).
Therefore, it's hard for me to say that Bitcoin is currently in the bottom range, but it can be seen that investors are at least very interested in costs below $70,000. Even now, with BTC approaching $80,000, investor buying has not noticeably slowed down.
Phyrex.Ni
😂 After thinking about it all night, I'm ready to buy in at around $75,500, expecting to acquire about 0.4 $BTC.
If I successfully make the purchase, I'll use this portion of BTC to try selling CALL options, to see if I can earn a bit more in premiums. This means creating a combination of selling PUTs and selling CALLs.
I'll use selling PUTs to bottom-fish Bitcoin at a low price, and after successfully bottoming out, I'll sell at a high price using selling CALLs.
If it doesn't drop to my target price, I'll earn the premium from the PUTs.
If it drops to my target price, I'll acquire BTC at spot.
After acquiring BTC, if it doesn't rise to my selling price, I'll continue to earn the premium from the CALLs. If it rises to my selling price, I'll sell the BTC, return to cash, and continue the next round of selling PUTs.
Of course, this strategy has its issues:
If BTC drops quickly, selling PUTs will have me acquiring during the decline, which could lead to unrealized losses, but if it's at a price I accept, it's still manageable.
If BTC rises quickly, selling CALLs might cause me to sell too early, missing out on the subsequent gains. This is what troubles me the most.
Anyway, I'll just put out $30,000 to experiment and see. The main funds are still waiting to bottom-fish Bitcoin.
Additionally, it must be said that in terms of customized dual-currency wealth management, #Binance is leading the way. For example, when I buy dual-currency on Binance, I am making large investments in dual-currency. Although it is considered a large amount, as long as the investment exceeds 5,000 USDT, it is possible.
On one hand, Binance allows you to customize the price at which you want to sell high or buy low, rather than being restricted to the prices provided by the system; it can be completely personalized. Secondly, the timing can also be customized, although holidays and weekends are still not selectable.
The best part is that you can choose the returns on dual-currency. For instance, in the last two images, at almost the same time and under the same conditions, the yield difference between the two was 1.14%. My personal understanding is that Binance's large dual-currency offerings are provided by third parties.
Different third parties will offer varying interest rates, and often I can find better returns than those typically offered by standard dual-currency options.
So for those playing with dual-currency, if your capital exceeds 5,000 USDT, you might want to try using large dual-currency investments to customize your own plan.
Phyrex.Ni
Some friends are concerned about which platform the earnings in the table come from. I've been doing this for a while, mainly on #Binance and #OKX, and occasionally on #Bitget. Let's first compare Binance and OKX:
Looking at the T+1 model, there are still some differences between Binance and OKX. For example, with a sell PUT (buy low) at $76,000, Binance has slightly higher interest, but OKX has a finer price range, and the closer it is to the current price, the higher the earnings on OKX, such as at $77,000.
So generally speaking, if the price is far from the current price, I would use Binance more, but if it's close to the current price, the earnings on OKX would be a bit higher.
Then looking at the T+2 model, it's pretty much the same; the closer it is to the current price, the higher the earnings on OKX, and the further away from the current price, the higher the earnings on Binance. So this combination depends on the individual.
Both Binance and OKX have their own features.
For example, Binance offers dual currency large investments, where you can invest a minimum of $5,000 in Bitcoin or sell at least 0.1 $BTC to use large investments. The biggest advantage of large investments is that you can define the price and time you want to buy or sell, and get quotes from third parties. This feature is quite good and is what I mainly use now, and the third-party quotes are slightly higher than the interest offered by Binance's dual currency.
On the other hand, OKX's biggest feature is its more flexible timing. Binance resets to the next day at midnight, and there are no settlements on weekends. But OKX can transact until noon, and OKX allows weekend settlements, making it more convenient and flexible in terms of timing.
Iran attempts to decouple the Strait of Hormuz from nuclear negotiations
According to U.S. media Axios, Iran has submitted a proposal to the U.S. to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, but on the condition that discussions on the nuclear program are postponed until later.
This means ending the war first, then addressing control over the Strait of Hormuz, and finally discussing Iran's nuclear program.
Currently, the U.S. has not made any statements, and as a result, WTI prices briefly rose above $97, and are now still fluctuating around $96.
Since I mentioned that I have nothing to do at home and would play games, I often receive private messages from kind friends recommending games, and naturally, "chain games" are included. I’m not very interested in most of the games; as someone who has been in the gaming industry for over ten years, the playability of current on-chain games is just so-so, and many are more like "funding schemes" disguised as games.
Regarding the product from @RealGoOfficial RealGo, to be honest, I’m quite conflicted. A good friend recommended it to me, saying it’s an innovative way to play chain games, not just in a Play To Earn manner, but integrating chain games with the Meme ecosystem. I personally tested it, and to say it’s a game would be more accurate to say it’s a Meme launch platform.
Yes, it’s such an interesting format. In terms of gameplay, RealGo draws inspiration from Pokemon Go, and the presentation is almost identical. The graphics and controls still need improvement, but the biggest change is that the Pokémon are replaced with Meme graphics or logos.
You can directly catch "pets" like DOGE, PEPE, BAYC, Pengu, and PNUT in the game, and catching them will give you a certain amount of corresponding Tokens. For example, if you catch Pepe, you will receive a certain amount of $Pepe, so although the game itself still needs improvement, this launch model does have some novelty.
From my personal perspective, the direction of this game will likely end up being a traffic pool for "Meme new coins". Players can earn free Meme Tokens by playing the game, which increases the number of holding addresses for that Meme and also boosts the exposure of the Meme itself. Additionally, it adds some application modes like game integration, pet trading, payments, and group chats.
Currently, it’s still in a relatively early stage, and a loyalty points program has been launched, with opportunities for free play. I’m personally keeping an eye on it.
RealGo
We are pleased to announce that RealGo Meme 3.0 Hong Kong is Powered by @BNBCHAIN, taking place during Web3 Festival Hong Kong 🇭🇰
As one of the leading ecosystems in Web3, BNB Chain continues to drive innovation in blockchain infrastructure and supports the growth of decentralized applications, gaming, and community driven projects across the industry.
This collaboration reflects a shared commitment to advancing Web3 gaming and strengthening ecosystem connectivity across builders, communities, and partners.
RealGo Meme 3.0 Hong Kong will bring together Web3 founders, gaming guilds, KOLs, VCs, and media for an evening focused on networking, collaboration, and ecosystem engagement.
🎟️ Register here:
#RealGo #Web3Festival
