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BTC here: If BTC doesn't hold steady and falls below $74,937, the long brothers on mainstream CEX will collectively "turn off the lights and eat noodles"—the cumulative long liquidation intensity will soar to $591 million, which can be described as "a lake formed by the tears of the bulls." Conversely, if BTC surges to $82,227, the shorts will be lining up to jump off buildings: the cumulative short liquidation intensity will reach $519 million, enough to overwhelm the customer service hotline of the short-selling exchanges. ETH isn't backing down either: If ETH gets scared and drops below $2,202, the long liquidation intensity will shoot up to $558 million, leaving the bulls with only one word: pain. But if ETH suddenly rises and breaks through $2,430, sorry, the shorts will have to collectively "liquidate and apologize," clearing a total of $397 million in shorts, creating a scene comparable to a fireworks show. In summary: Both sides are dancing on the edge of a cliff, just waiting for that final push—whoever breaks first, pays the price. 🍿 $BTC $ETH #玩转策略

$ETH Let’s briefly talk about the second coin tonight. The sideways movement won’t last forever. Right now, there are no obvious trading opportunities, so you need to be patient and wait. Don’t force your entry when there are no signals. Those who wait are the masters. The market won’t be sideways forever. Currently, there are no trading opportunities; what you need to do is lie low like a cheetah. Enduring loneliness is the key to getting the big rewards. If you move around aimlessly, you’ll become someone else's prey. The structure has already deteriorated halfway. On the hourly level, there is indeed a bullish trend line supporting it. Remember, this line is the "underwear" of the second coin; as long as it doesn’t break, the market won’t directly go into a deep pullback. Once this line is lost, the 2270 level is likely to hold up poorly, and you need to pay attention to 2218 below. Currently, there is a risk point to note: the highs are continuously moving down. Although there hasn’t been a lower low yet, as long as no higher highs are made, it’s only a matter of time before lower lows appear. To reverse this structure, it must break through 2325 to create higher highs; otherwise, the market will continue to weaken. Specific levels for tonight: · Long strategy: If it stabilizes above 2305 with volume, you can enter long on the right side, targeting 2346 to 2380. · Short strategy: If it breaks below 2287 with volume, you can enter short on the right side, targeting 2247 to 2219 below. Especially pay attention to 2283; if it can’t hold on the four-hour level, the pullback will increase. No need to look at too many other levels; just focus on these key positions. Follow the direction where the volume increases, and always set a stop loss. $ETH $BTC #玩转策略

It's evening, let's casually chat about the market. On the hourly chart, it's been dragging on here, just stuck in place, making people almost fall asleep. Want to touch the previous high? First, let's chew through this tough nut at 78434 before we talk; if we can't get past this, there's no action to be had. Tonight, I have one top priority in my eyes: the previous high at 79461. Listen carefully, if it breaks through and holds with volume, then great, the bulls have won, don't get tempted to short. But what I'm afraid of is a fake-out—just a touch, and like it's hot to the touch, it immediately turns back down below 79461. If this happens, the hourly chart will directly show a triple top, indicating that there's huge selling pressure at the previous high, and even the big players can't push it up anymore. So, what's the plan? Just wait for it to perform there: If it stands up and holds, no matter what. If it just touches and then weakens, a false breakout that drops back, then no question, short half a position on the left side directly, and set your stop loss; this is the posture for making money. Whether it's a person or a ghost, we'll see how strong this move is. If it goes down, a pullback to 77278 is acceptable. But listen carefully, it absolutely cannot effectively break below 77278; if it does, this bullish consolidation area will be wiped out, the structure will break, and 76224 is waiting to catch you, making the short-term outlook grim. Here are a few key levels for you to watch: If it breaks through 78367 with volume, you can chase the long on the right side, looking up at 79461, then 80809. If it can't get past 78367, then it's useless. If it breaks down through 77437 with volume and confirms it can't bounce back, then shorting is also fine, just don't forget your stop loss. On the four-hour chart, if 77317 effectively breaks down, then we have to look down to 76279 or even 74953. Lastly, a word of reassurance, don't lose your composure. On the daily chart, as long as the range between 74300 and 74000 isn't broken, the bullish trend remains intact; don't scare yourself every day shouting that the bull is dead. The daily MACD is still floating above the zero line, and the bulls are still controlling the market. Before breaking this range, just patiently wait for it to push up; recognizing the big trend is more important than anything else. Tonight, just keep an eye on that twitch at 79461, whether it's really strong or just a flash in the pan. If it's a fake strength, then push it down. That's it. $BTC $ETH #玩转策略

ETFs attracted over $730 million in a single day, and the flood of institutional investment pushing Bitcoin back to $78,000 is no coincidence. On May 2, Bitcoin strongly reclaimed the $78,000 mark, and the funding data from across the ocean provided a direct and powerful explanation. Monitoring by Farside showed a rare explosion in the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF yesterday, with a net inflow of up to $629.8 million; combined with the net inflow of $101.2 million from the Ethereum spot ETF, the two forces together absorbed over $730 million, resulting in a massive concentration of capital. The leaders of this influx of funds are still the two giants: BlackRock's IBIT swept in $284.4 million, followed closely by Fidelity's FBTC, which recorded a large buy of $213.4 million. This continuous demand in the hundreds of millions of dollars has quickly built a solid support barrier in the secondary market, clearly explaining why, despite miners reducing their holdings and a backdrop of market panic, the price of cryptocurrencies can still hold strong and rebound. The Ethereum ETF also delivered impressive results. Fidelity's FETH topped the list with a net purchase of $49.4 million, while BlackRock's ETHA contributed a net inflow of $43.2 million. Combining this with the recent transfer of 10,000 ETH from the Ethereum Foundation to Bitmine and the continuous accumulation by institutions, the current market context is very clear: amidst the fluctuations and panic, retail investors and high-leverage traders are handing over their chips, while traditional financial giants represented by BlackRock and Fidelity are massively "picking up" cheap chips in the market. In the options market, traders are still weighing the possibility of reaching $84,000, while on the other side, ETFs are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars directly into the spot market every day. Faced with such a torrent of buying, any short-term technical pullback seems more like a stepping stone for the main funds' layout. As May begins, this is destined to be an intense game centered around a major reshuffling of chips. $BTC $ETH #玩转策略

After the April cryptocurrency VC financing data was released, there was a lot of discussion in the market, but most of it was based on a misleading month-over-month figure. $659 million compared to $2.6 billion in March appears to be a 74% cliff-like decline, but if we break down the March data, the conclusion would be completely different. #加密VC四月断崖：融资暴跌74% In March, that $2.6 billion included about $1.8 billion from Mastercard's acquisition of the stablecoin infrastructure company BVNK, along with two other larger financing deals, totaling over $2 billion, which are typical merger and acquisition transactions and do not fall under the category of regular early-stage VC investments. Excluding these one-time large transactions, the normal VC financing volume in March was actually around $600 to $800 million. Looking back, February was $644 million, and April is $659 million; the data over the past three months has not shown a trend collapse but has been fluctuating normally within a relatively stable range. In other words, April did not see a crash; it returned to the mean line. What made the industry feel relatively cold in April was another factor—the concentrated outbreak of security incidents that month, with losses exceeding $600 million, setting a historical high. Events of this magnitude have a direct impact on investors' risk appetite, naturally slowing down the pace, but this is a different concept from a deterioration in fundamentals. Compared to the apparent decline on the VC side, another set of data is more worth understanding. The RWA track, which refers to real-world assets on-chain, has grown from $5.8 billion to $30.2 billion over the past 16 months, an increase of over 420%. During the same period, the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market shrank by about 37%. On one side, the overall market is contracting, while on the other, this niche direction is running against the trend. This is not short-term speculation; it reflects a structural change in the allocation logic of institutional funds. Traditional financial institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity have successively launched on-chain U.S. Treasury funds, bringing the interest income from U.S. government bonds onto the blockchain, allowing compliant institutions to obtain relatively certain returns directly on-chain. Gold tokens reached a spot trading volume of $90.7 billion in the first quarter, exceeding the total volume of the previous year in just one quarter, driven by geopolitical tensions pushing up gold prices, along with mainstream exchanges launching related products, further concentrating liquidity. While most people in the market are still looking for the next narrative that could yield a hundredfold return, a portion of larger funds has already shifted to a completely different direction—they are no longer pursuing high-volatility excess returns but are seeking relatively certain, sustainable yield tools on-chain. This does not mean that innovation is stagnating; it is more like the market is stratifying. One side continues to use venture capital to bet on early innovations, while the other uses allocation funds to anchor certain returns; both behaviors can coexist, indicating that the financialization of the market is increasing. In April, when most VCs chose to remain silent and observe, the actions of GSR and L1 Digital are worth noting. GSR participated in four financings that month, making it the most active investor in the market, while L1 Digital completed three. If we extend this to the entire quarter, GSR has made seven moves in the DeFi and RWA directions. What’s more critical is not the number of moves but the direction and logic of those moves. GSR led the investment in the tokenized platform Libeara incubated by Standard Chartered Bank, launched a crypto ETF on Nasdaq covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and including staking yields, and invested in an RWA leveraged vault protocol built on Morpho. L1 Digital focused on RWA underlying chains and Web3 AI infrastructure. When these actions are pieced together, they are no longer just a simple VC investment portfolio but are building a set of infrastructure needed for future institutional funds to enter the market—compliance channels, yield tools, and liquidity pipelines. What they are betting on is not which token will rise in the short term, but that after the regulatory framework gradually takes shape, traditional financial institutions' money will have to enter this market through these pre-established pipelines. ARK Invest predicts that the digital asset market will expand to $28 trillion by 2030; regardless of whether this number is ultimately accurate, the direction of large-scale institutional entry into the market is almost certain. GSR and L1 are positioning themselves against the trend at this time, essentially occupying core node positions while most people are still waiting for right-side signals. Looking back at the entire market picture in April, there are actually three main lines advancing simultaneously. The numerical disturbance in VC financing has been overly amplified; the real situation is a return to normal pace. RWA, with a 420% increase and a $30 billion volume, proves that institutional allocation funds are redefining the boundaries of on-chain assets. And those institutions that dared to bet against the trend during the quietest times in the market have always been focused not on the immediate price fluctuations but on the structural opportunities in the entire crypto financial infrastructure in the next cycle. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Have you noticed what's the most ironic part of this lawsuit? #马斯克vs奥特曼：庭审承认蒸馏对手模型 Old Ma is suing for "OpenAI stole my stuff," but ends up admitting in court — I stole too, and everyone does it. At that moment, the courtroom was probably silent for two seconds. To be honest, following this case up to now, what I find most interesting is not the legal texts, but how these people, clearly doing the same thing, can tell completely different stories. OpenAI and Anthropic previously made "distillation" sound like espionage, even the White House was alarmed. When it came to Old Ma himself, he casually said, "Everyone does this," as if it were just like using a colleague's Netflix account. It's like copying homework in class when we were kids. If the top student copies, it's called "reference borrowing," but if you copy, it's called "cheating," yet in the end, what everyone submits is actually quite similar. The only difference is who gets caught. Now look at the Pentagon situation. I actually admire that CEO of Anthropic; if I were in that position, facing hundreds of billions in contracts, could I hold my ground and say "on conscience"? Hard to say. But he really did hold his ground. What happened? He got kicked out of the group chat, OpenAI quickly filled the gap, and the terms still left a backdoor saying "can be exempted when national security requires." This backdoor translates to four words: can backtrack anytime. Then the worst part is, on the day of signing, 700,000 people canceled their ChatGPT accounts. These users might not be able to articulate what they are opposing, but their bodies are honest — they just feel something is off. So you see, on one side, the big shots are tearing each other apart in court, on the other side, ordinary people are voting with their feet, and the military is waiting with a checkbook on the side. This industry is so fragmented right now. But I want to talk about more than just watching the drama. This situation actually opened a window for another group of people. Old Ma admitted that "everyone is distilling each other," which in a way pulled the industry's fig leaf away. Previously, everyone was tacitly understanding, but now it's written in black and white in the court records. The question then becomes — if centralized big companies can't control or clarify where their data comes from, who will manage it? At this point, when you look at what the decentralized AI folks are doing, it suddenly doesn't seem like air anymore. On-chain rights confirmation, training data traceability, automatic revenue sharing — it used to sound like a scam, but after watching this court trial, you might feel — it seems we really need something like this. Not because we love blockchain, but because if we rely solely on companies "on conscience," Anthropic's experience has already shown you the result. Of course, it's still early to say this. Those working on decentralized AI are still refining their technology, and the ecosystem hasn't taken off yet. But the seeds have already been sown. One day, when regulators really require model training data to be "traceable," these projects that seem very geeky today might suddenly become infrastructure. This is not some slogan like "Web3 revolution," but a very simple logic: when no one trusts each other, transparent rules become valuable. Finally, coming back to the $134 billion lawsuit, who wins and who loses isn't that important. What's important is that this drama has revealed the industry's bottom cards. What's left is not to see who has the loudest voice, but who can truly build a new set of rules that everyone has to follow. $BTC $ETH

The Ethereum Foundation has sold coins again. In two weeks, $47 million, 30,000 ETH from March until now, nearly $69 million. And it was all OTC, sold to the same company, BitMine. If you think about it, this is much more painful than it seems on the surface. #以太坊基金会两周出售$4700万ETH Many people think that since it's OTC, they didn't directly dump it on the market, which is quite considerate. But having tens of millions of goods all piled up in the hands of BitMine means they can slowly sell it off later; what can you do? Even if they don't move it now, having such a large stake sitting there is a ticking time bomb. What's even more troubling is the confidence. The biggest "insider" in the ecosystem keeps cashing out, how can others trust it? They talk about long-term value, but their hands are clearing out; the market isn't blind. Then every time you ask where the money went, it’s the same few lines, used for core operations and ecosystem development. Come on, tens of millions a year, for three years now, where has it gone? What are the salaries, which projects have you invested in, do you dare to show your own address, is there an audit? In this circle, even a small dog project knows to lock up and disclose; you, a foundation, are living like a black box. It’s not that you’re necessarily spending recklessly, but if it’s not transparent, don’t blame others for thinking the worst. The community's trust is just this little bit; don’t treat it like a credit card. The most fatal thing is, you don’t even hold any, yet you shout about ultrasonic currency every day. The narrative of Ethereum's deflation is so beautiful: burning, scarcity, digital gold. But then you look, one of the largest holders is selling, converting ETH into U and fiat. It’s like your boss is always saying the company’s stock is going to rise, while quietly reducing their holdings. There’s nothing wrong with the narrative of ultrasonic currency itself, but at least support it with actions. Selling while boasting, who wouldn’t feel a jolt in their heart? So you see, the core of this matter isn’t about the technical details of OTC; it’s about how much credit you have left to squander like this today. I won’t stop you from selling, but at least show the accounts, at least say a word of truth, at least don’t let everyone continue to believe while you’re dismantling the platform. The Foundation's operations are quite damaging to public relations. $ETH $BTC $SOL

Brothers, regarding that CLARITY Act, the dust has basically settled. No more guessing, just one sentence: if you want to lie back and earn interest, there’s no chance. But as long as you’re willing to move, the road isn’t completely blocked. #CLARITY法案：稳定币收益规则定稿 That red line is drawn quite clearly. If you earn interest just for "holding" stablecoins, it’s strictly prohibited. Financial products in exchanges that allow earning interest on USDC are directly sentenced to death, so don’t hold any illusions. But interestingly, not everything is completely banned. If you earn rewards for doing something—like getting cash back for paying with stablecoins, making market-making profits on Uniswap, staking in Lido for dividends, or earning rewards for participating in governance voting—these are considered activity-based incentives and are temporarily safe. The little Lego in DeFi still seems playable for now. However, there’s a small landmine here. There’s a saying called "economically or functionally equivalent to bank deposit interest," and the interpretation rights are now handed over to the SEC and CFTC folks, who have a year to ponder it. In plain language, if the rewards from your DeFi protocol look too much like "interest based on how much you deposit," regulators can turn against you at any time, saying this isn’t activity-based incentives, but rather disguised interest. Those protocols that only let you store and earn money without any substantial operations carry the highest risk. You need to work to earn money; that’s the new rule. Time is quite tight, but it’s not completely hopeless. The progress bar is at this point: the House has already nodded, and the Senate has just come up with a compromise version. The next crucial battle is the week of May 11, when the Senate Banking Committee will start the Markup, where everyone will gather around the table to amend clauses and fight. If this battle can be completed, and it can break out of the committee by the end of May, then this bill has a chance to continue moving forward. There’s still a whole bunch of things like a full house vote and coordinating with the House version ahead. The folks at Galaxy analyzed that the probability of finally passing this year is only about 50%. This isn’t to scare people; it’s mainly because there are too many issues in line behind it, like Iran and funding, which could cut in at any time. If this time it gets stuck again, the entire crypto legislation might be pushed to see the light of day in 2030. Keep your eyes wide open in the coming weeks. As for who has it easier between Circle and Tether, do we even need to discuss it? The bill has created a "licensed payment stablecoin" stranglehold, clearly favoring Circle. Circle is like a student who brought their own food to the exam, having obtained the strictest New York BitLicense early on, with reserves in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, and monthly audits. This bill is practically written according to their rules. The funniest part is that Circle doesn’t rely on offering interest to attract customers; they earn from the returns on reserves buying government bonds, so the prohibition on interest basically has no impact on them. The drop in stock price when the draft came out was purely market volatility. Tether is feeling a bit uncomfortable. Although transparency has improved, its offshore background and relationship with U.S. regulators make obtaining a federal license much more challenging than for Circle. It’s not that it’s impossible, but they are indeed starting several positions behind. The compliance game is beneficial for the local good kids; this isn’t a conspiracy, it’s an open strategy. With this bill, the entire stablecoin landscape has basically been set: either get a license and become a regular army, or survive in the margins. For us, there are more rules, but the direction is clear; don’t go against the trend. Be sure to keep a close eye on the week of May 11, as the first real hard battle is about to begin. $BTC $ETH $SOL

I just saw Trump say "the conflict is over," and my first reaction wasn't whether to believe it or not, but rather—those folks in Congress are probably going to blow up again. #特朗普称冲突已结束：伊朗提妥协方案 The core of this issue isn't Iran; it's Trump competing with Congress over "who gets to decide whether the U.S. goes to war or not." The War Powers Act of 1973 is pretty strict: the president must get congressional authorization within 60 days of deploying troops, or else withdraw them. He notified Congress on March 2, and counting the days, May 1 is the deadline. As a result, the White House played a word game: the Secretary of Defense said in Congress that after April 7, it would be a ceasefire, and the 60-day countdown could be paused; Trump more directly stated that this law is unconstitutional, and he doesn't recognize it. But what’s the reality? The U.S. military is still blocking Iran at sea, 16 bases in the Middle East have been destroyed, and the bills add up to nearly $50 billion. Can you call this the end of the conflict? The Democrats have already started criticizing, saying that the legal text doesn't even have an option for "pausing." But despite the criticism, the Republican establishment hasn't turned against him, and polls haven't reached a point of no return, so Congress is unlikely to actually step in and force the issue. Personally, I feel this is just slicing the salami. Today they say the conflict is over, and if the situation tightens again tomorrow, they can announce a "new conflict" and eat up another 60-day window. This kind of play has been used by both parties' presidents before. So don’t expect a single statement to bring peace; it’s just a halftime break. Now, about Iran's "parallel negotiation plan." On the surface, it looks like they’re lowering their stance, no longer insisting on lifting the blockade before talks, and willing to divide it into three phases: first a ceasefire, then discussions about the Strait of Hormuz, and finally the nuclear issue. But by putting the nuclear issue last, isn’t that just holding back the most critical card? Trump has already said he’s "not satisfied" because Iran hasn’t committed to stopping uranium enrichment and hasn’t budged on never acquiring nuclear weapons. From the U.S. perspective, the maritime blockade is currently the most painful card in hand; if they start with a ceasefire and lift the blockade, what leverage do they have to force Iran to make concessions on the nuclear issue? Iran isn’t foolish either. Their navy has basically been decimated, their economy is suffocating, and the hardliners and pragmatists are still at odds over the nuclear issue. Pushing the nuclear topic to the end essentially buys them time to catch their breath. So I’m keeping a close eye on one thing: when can the Strait of Hormuz substantively resume navigation? Right now, there are very few merchant ships passing through the strait, and shipping insurance costs have skyrocketed. As long as the shipping lanes are unsafe, all the concessions Iran claims to make are just hot air. If ships aren’t moving normally, I’ll consider this negotiation hasn’t even started. Lastly, those involved in crypto might have already noticed—OFAC has explicitly extended sanctions to crypto payments. This is no joke. In the past, some thought they could bypass regulations using cryptocurrency for transactions, but now OFAC has directly shut down wallets linked to the Iranian central bank and issued the strictest warnings: even if you use digital assets to pay "tolls," it counts as violating sanctions. Coupled with the previously passed GENIUS Act, which requires stablecoin issuers to embed sanction screening, transactions can be frozen at the code level. People in the industry who are doing cross-border payments are already worried; compliance costs are visibly skyrocketing. Small teams simply can’t afford this, and those who are likely to survive are the big players with deep pockets and regulatory connections. To be honest, it’s quite poignant; the group that once shouted for decentralized freedom now has to obediently comply with licensing regulations. This sector is being reshuffled, and the barriers to entry have genuinely been raised. Looking at these three lines, they actually point to the same thing: the U.S.-Iran situation has turned into a multi-faceted entanglement of military, legal, diplomatic, and financial lines. The hot war has indeed cooled down for now, but the shadow war hasn’t stopped at all, and it’s even more exhausting. At times like this, the most dangerous thing is to make judgments based on one-sided information. Try to look at military dynamics, congressional wrangling, the situation in the strait, and the sanctions list together; you might be able to grasp the direction earlier than most.

$BTC$ETH Morning Insights Bitcoin played a false breakout yesterday, surging above 78536 but failing to hold and dropping back down, a pure trap market. Fortunately, it didn't break the key level on the pullback, and now it's trying to push up again. Everyone is now focused on one level: 78536. The first wave just failed to break through, so let's see how this second wave goes. If it can't push up again, the bulls will lose momentum, and the hourly chart will form a double top, leading to a downward correction. Corrections aren't scary, but the level of 77370 must not be broken. If 77370 breaks, the entire short-term rebound structure will be damaged, and we will need to look for support around 76234. For the bulls to make money, they must increase volume to break through 78536; if they can hold above it, we can look at the previous high of 79489, and if that breaks, we can aim for 80,000. How to get in? Wait for Bitcoin to break 78367 with volume before chasing, don't jump the gun. For the bears looking to take action, wait for a second failed assault near 78536, and if a double top forms, then look for a pullback. If 77449 breaks with volume and fails to rebound, go short directly, and set a stop loss. Another frustrating scenario is getting stuck in the middle, oscillating back and forth. It might touch the previous high but fail to break, and also not break below 77370, just swinging in between. Today is Saturday, and if the market isn't moving much, it's basically a consolidation phase; the more you trade in this kind of market, the more mistakes you'll make. Watch more and act less; controlling your hands is the way to win. Now looking at Ethereum, it just follows Bitcoin's lead but has its own consolidation box with clear upper and lower bounds. To strengthen, it needs to break above the upper bound of 2325; only then can it aim for 2346 and 2380. As long as it doesn't break the lower bound of the box, oscillating inside is fine, considered as building strength. Specific strategies for Ethereum: If it breaks 2298 with volume, go long, targeting 2326 to 2346. If 2277 breaks with volume, go short, looking down to 2218 to 2171. For a more cautious approach, wait for a pullback to 2231 to hold before going long, with a stop loss at 2200. For the bold, place a sell order near 2383, with a stop loss at 2405. Buy at 2174, with a stop loss at 2131. Lastly, a hard truth: no matter what direction you trade, always watch the volume. Breakouts without volume are 9 out of 10 times deceptive; the market makers love to create these traps on weekends, pulling a wave to lure you in and then smashing it back down. Discipline is more important than direction; if you need to stop loss, do it. Resistance levels for Bitcoin are at 78367, 79489, and 80781, with support at 77471, 76176, and 74868. Resistance levels for Ethereum are at 2298, 2326, and 2346, with support at 2278, 2244, and 2219. $BTC $ETH #玩转策略