Henry科崽

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-5-2) Yesterday, the market started moving according to the first scenario I provided, with a direct upward surge. From this perspective, there will be a small-level pullback, followed by a new high, approaching the previous double top's peak, where the accumulation of short positions will begin to increase. Trading Strategy: Consider going long around 77400, aiming to see a breakout at 80000. There are still 3 days until the real decline begins.~ (Don't short easily; the main force is in control, and it's clear that the bulls are strong and unified, while the bears are gradually declining.)

Historical Review: What changes occurred in the global economy after the surge in oil prices in history? ❓🕙 $BZ #美伊持续封锁：油价创四年新高 1️⃣ 1973 Oil Crisis: Background: Middle East conflict + oil embargo Oil prices skyrocketed several times Result: Global economy fell into recession The U.S. entered stagflation Stock market remained sluggish for a long time 👉 Conclusion: 👉 High oil prices can directly drag down the economic cycle 2️⃣ 2008 Oil Price Surge Background: In the mid-2000s, the global economy grew rapidly, especially with rising energy demands from China and India, coupled with limited supply from OPEC, tensions in the Middle East, and the depreciation of the dollar, all contributing to rising oil prices. A large number of investment funds entered the energy futures market, amplifying price volatility. Result: Consumption was suppressed Corporate costs soared Combined with the financial crisis 👉 Global economic collapse 3️⃣ 2022 Energy Crisis (Russia-Ukraine Conflict) Oil and gas prices skyrocketed European inflation exploded Result: European economy nearing recession Global interest rate hike cycle initiated.

Recently, Kexi has been trading crude oil, let's analyze the international situation ➕ the price fluctuations of crude oil~ (mainly focusing on short selling 📉) $BZ #The US-Iran blockade continues: oil prices hit a four-year high First, yesterday the Trump administration called on allies to establish a new international coalition to coordinate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. (To curb the rise in crude oil prices) Currently, the core demands of both Iran and the US remain unresolved, but if crude oil prices stay high, it actually acts as an "invisible tax" on the global economy; the longer it lasts, the deeper the damage. If crude oil prices remain high for a long time, a series of butterfly effects will occur ⬇️ 1️⃣ Inflation gets locked 🔒 Transportation, manufacturing, and energy costs all rise Businesses can only: 👉 Raise prices or see profits decline 👉 Result: The world enters a "high inflation environment" 2️⃣ Consumption gets suppressed High oil prices → Fuel, electricity, and food all increase Real income of residents declines 👉 Result: Consumption downgrade / Demand weakens 3️⃣ Central banks get "kidnapped" High inflation → Afraid to cut interest rates May even continue tightening 👉 Result: Liquidity tightens + Asset prices come under pressure 4️⃣ Final result: Economic slowdown or even recession 👉 Classic path: High oil prices → High inflation → High interest rates → Low growth Moreover, oil prices are one of the core variables of CPI 👉 Result: The Federal Reserve becomes more hawkish Interest rate cuts delayed So I personally believe that regardless of how big this conflict is, or whether the demands of both sides are ultimately resolved, the international situation itself and the economic environment do not allow crude oil prices to continue to rise, unless direct military action is taken.

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-5-1) In the analysis provided yesterday morning, I suggested that if we see a bullish daily candle, we could enter long positions. Although a double top pattern has appeared, I still don't expect a direct drop below this level ⬇️, and currently, the long positions are in profit ~ Trading Strategy: At this position, there are two possible scenarios that may unfold ⬇️ 1️⃣ A steady upward movement directly to the target level: around 80000 2️⃣ A continuation of a double bottom, retracing to 76000, then rising to 80000. I believe the real downturn will likely start after May 5th, at which point we can confidently position ourselves for shorting.

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-4-30) Yesterday, a shooting star appeared on the daily chart, closing at the Fibonacci 0.236 level, which is around 74800. It's important to pay attention to whether this level will break or hold as support. Trading Strategy: If today’s daily candle closes bullish and does not approach the bottom, a long position can be taken. If it breaks below 748, set a stop loss and open a short position, with a target around 719.

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-4-29) Yesterday, it started to rebound around 75700, which is the bottom of the supply and demand zone I drew, and all patterns are valid and useful ✅ Operation Strategy: There is a high probability of a second retest of the bottom; if it does not break below 75700, you can go long. If it completely breaks down with volume, you can go short 📉. Wait for the direction to emerge, and follow the direction to trade for a higher win rate!

I tend to think that there will be a double kill of both long and short positions before the real decline starts, because the market has accumulated too many short positions since dropping from around 79. It's actually not surprising to enter the market at this position. From my years of trading experience, if a position is very clearly a long/short position, it is highly likely that the market makers will use it to trap funds. The candlestick chart is drawn for those who know how to read it. The drop from the 79 resistance level is too logical, and the accumulation of short positions in the market is excessive, making the probability of a direct drop very low.

In simple terms, today's market analysis (citing a tweet) from Kezi provided two potential scenarios for Bitcoin, along with the operational steps for each scenario ⬇️ 1️⃣ A quick plunge within the next week, breaking a small new high, followed by a spike to liquidate the current short positions, creating a scene where both bulls and bears can profit. 2️⃣ Starting to consolidate at this level, then creating a false breakout to accumulate positions, while the actual top has already formed, leading to a direct waterfall decline. Which scenario ultimately plays out is not important; trading is not about betting on direction, but rather anticipating all possible scenarios and preparing contingency plans, then following the direction once the outcome is clear ✅

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-4-28) Four-hour level: A very standard double top structure, followed by a decline, breaking the upward trend line, and then a slight rebound before a second drop, testing the resistance level of the upward trend line ✅. Daily level: Also a standard double top pattern, then smoothly breaking below the upward trend line, currently showing no signs of reversal. Trading Strategy: The range of 75700-75300 is the first strong support level and the best position to go long, as the current rapid decline is not what I consider a true top for the downtrend. Although it has the shape of a decline, I personally remain confident that it will break through the 80,000 mark. Shorting Strategy: If you want to short, you must wait for it to break below 75300 and not stabilize at the first support level I provided before going with the trend to short the market.

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-4-27) As always, you can trust the long-term market analysis from Kezi. In my daily analysis and supplementary analysis, I mentioned that everyone should go long on Bitcoin and Ethereum, and I chose to go long on Ethereum. Market Interpretation 📖: Currently, we've broken through the resistance level of 79100, and this level will definitely need to be surpassed. The second technical resistance level is the round number of 80000. However, if you want to short, I still recommend placing your short position a bit higher, around 81-82, to avoid the risk of a spike upwards, especially considering that the continuation of bearish strength near 80,000 will be quite strong. Topping out is definitely harder than going with the trend. Everyone knows it will eventually drop, but where will it drop? How will it drop? No one can say for sure. What I can do is to short with a divided position, firmly believe in the long-term direction, and then keep adding to my position as it goes up. Another suggestion is not to short just because it breaks 80,000 or reaches 81-82. Wait for the market to move a bit more. If it starts to consolidate at a high level again, wait for the real top to appear before entering.