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Stablecoin Sector Daily Briefing May 1, 2026 • The Hong Kong Monetary Authority issues the world's first licenses for stablecoin issuers, allowing HSBC and Anchor Financial Technology to issue Hong Kong dollar stablecoins. Promotion • Visa expands its stablecoin settlement pilot blockchain to 9 lines, with an annual settlement amount reaching $7 billion. • USDC circulation reaches $38 billion, with on-chain transaction volume accounting for over 70%, widely adopted by Meta, Visa, and Stripe. • Coinbase launches the CUSHY institutional stablecoin yield fund, supporting multi-chain tokenized share issuance.

US Macro Daily Briefing May 1, 2026 • The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, with the largest divergence since 1992 at the meeting. • US core PCE and employment costs exceeded expectations, inflationary pressures remain. • Trump will hear a new military plan regarding Iran, as tensions between the US and Iran escalate. • 330,000 importers will receive $166 billion in tariff refunds, to be issued around May. Monetary Policy and Federal Reserve Dynamics 1. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve has maintained the policy interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, with the largest divergence since 1992, as four members voted against. The market's expectations for a rate hike have slightly increased, and several institutions have postponed their expectations for a Fed rate cut. The outgoing Fed Chair Powell has clearly stated that he will remain on the Federal Reserve Board after his term ends on May 15, promising not to act as a "shadow chair," a decision that has almost no precedent in the history of the Fed. Incoming Chair Kevin Walsh is expected to officially take over from Powell on May 15, with the nomination already submitted to the Senate for final vote. 2. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett has repeatedly stated that now is the time for Powell to leave the Fed, as his continued presence on the Board may affect rate cuts; if the Fed or the European Central Bank raises rates, it would be a policy mistake; Walsh will not make any guarantees, and everything will be based on data. At the same time, Hassett stated that the Inspector General's investigation into the Fed respects the Fed's independence. 3. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged until June is 95%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 5%; the probability of maintaining rates unchanged until July is 87.9%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 11.7%, and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 0.4%. 4. Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson stated that Powell's choice to remain on the Board after his term ends is primarily motivated by a desire to clear his tarnished personal reputation due to the Justice Department investigation. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that Walsh needs to learn to build consensus rather than act unilaterally after taking charge of the Fed, and his true policy stance remains in question, as he previously held a hawkish position and expressed almost completely opposite views before his nomination. 5. The US core PCE price index rose 3.2% year-on-year in March and 0.3% month-on-month, in line with market expectations; the overall personal consumption expenditure price index rose 3.5% year-on-year in March, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.8%, reaching a new high since June 2023, which is a core inflation indicator closely monitored by the Fed. The annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index for the first quarter rose 4.3%, higher than the expected 4.1%. 6. The annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US for the first quarter rose 2%, lower than the market expectation of 2.3%, with the final value for the fourth quarter of last year rising 0.5%; the employment cost index for the first quarter rose 0.9% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.8%. As of the week ending April 25, the number of initial jobless claims in the US fell to 189,000, the lowest level since 1969, with an expectation of 212,000. 7. The Chicago PMI for April in the US was 49.2, lower than the expected 53, with a previous value of 52.8. The Conference Board's leading economic index for March fell 0.6% month-on-month, with an expectation of a 0.1% decline, and a previous value of a 0.1% decline. Personal income in the US grew 0.6% month-on-month in March, while personal consumption expenditure grew 0.5% month-on-month. As of the week ending April 29, the outstanding balance of commercial paper in the US, unadjusted for seasonality, increased by $13.9 billion. Geopolitical and Energy Dynamics 1. US President Trump will hear a report on a new military plan regarding possible military actions against Iran from the US Central Command on April 30 local time. Trump stated that due to Iran's "stubborn" behavior, there are many issues in negotiations with Iran, and the possibility of continued hostile actions cannot be ruled out, nor can the breaking of the ceasefire agreement be excluded. The plan developed by the US military aims to launch a short and intense strike against Iran, potentially targeting Iranian infrastructure, while another plan focuses on controlling parts of the Strait of Hormuz to restore commercial navigation. Iran has responded by stating that even if the US launches a limited attack, it will retaliate with prolonged and painful strikes. Iranian President Raisi stated that the US's actions under the guise of a maritime blockade are a continuation of military actions, and such oppressive practices are intolerable. 2. A senior White House official revealed that the US government is seeking to seize two oil tankers previously intercepted by the US Navy that are linked to Iran. The US Treasury Secretary disclosed that the US has seized nearly $500 million in Iranian crypto assets. 3. Trump stated that oil prices will immediately drop after the end of the Iran war, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unbelievable, as the US has already destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that the government is considering measures to quickly increase US oil production, making every effort to reduce short-term oil shocks, with futures markets expecting oil prices to drop significantly, and oil flow will increase unprecedentedly after the Strait of Hormuz is opened. 4. Gasoline prices in California have surpassed $6 per gallon for the first time since 2023, reaching a three-year high, with fuel prices across the US surging nearly 30 cents in a week, mainly due to the continued shrinkage of California's refining capacity, with gasoline production falling to a ten-year low, compounded by the impact of limited crude oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. 5. The US government is seeking to borrow up to 92.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The US Energy Information Administration reported that US jet fuel demand fell to a one-year low in February, with gasoline demand decreasing by 1.1% year-on-year, while total oil demand increased by 4.5% year-on-year. Last week, US EIA natural gas inventories increased by 79 billion cubic feet, with an expectation of an increase of 80 billion cubic feet. 6. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a standstill, and the US State Department has proposed forming a new alliance called the "Maritime Freedom Framework" led by the US, calling on other countries to join. This alliance will be responsible for sharing intelligence, coordinating diplomatic actions, and enforcing sanctions to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The debt will exceed $40 trillion, and the current US debt level has surpassed 100% of GDP. The US Treasury announced that the interest rate for the new I-series bonds for the next six months is 4.26%.

May 1 Middle East Situation ① Iran 1. Iranian Foreign Minister: U.S. and Israeli aggression is the root cause of regional turmoil. 2. Iranian President: Any maritime blockade violates international law. 3. According to the Iranian Students' News Agency: The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that expecting quick results from negotiations with the U.S. is unrealistic. 4. Iranian MP Manouchehr Mottaki: A blockade means declaring war. A decision may be made tomorrow or next week to remove these obstacles through military action. 5. Iranian Supreme Leader: Iran will never lose the Strait of Hormuz. Iranians will protect the country's scientific and production capabilities. 6. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi told Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida that Tehran is ready to resume diplomatic channels once Washington changes its behavior. 7. Commander of the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mousavi, stated that even if the U.S. attack is limited, Tehran will respond with "long and painful strikes." 8. The Iranian President and Speaker are seeking to replace the Foreign Minister, citing that he "succumbed to the Revolutionary Guard." ② United States 1. Trump claims he may need to break the Iran ceasefire agreement. 2. The U.S. military plans to strike Iran with hypersonic missiles, marking the first real combat deployment. 3. U.S. media: The U.S. proposed forming an alliance to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 4. U.S. media: The U.S. government seeks to "seize" two oil tankers linked to Iran. 5. U.S. media: Trump will receive a briefing on new plans for action against Iran on Thursday, including strong strikes and partial control of the Strait of Hormuz. 6. According to a reporter from the Washington Examiner: A senior official stated that the White House is actively engaging with congressional lawmakers regarding today's request for a 30-day reauthorization of the Iran war deadline. 7. U.S. House Speaker Johnson stated that the U.S. is not in a state of war with Iran. Congress does not need to vote on military actions against Iran. ③ Israel 1. Israeli Defense Minister Katz: We may soon need to take action again to ensure our objectives in Iran are achieved.

What has Trump been busy with in the past 24 hours? 1. Discussing with oil executives about maintaining the blockade on Iran for several months—White House officials said Trump met with oil and gas company executives on Tuesday, where attendees discussed "the steps Trump has taken to alleviate the global oil market, and measures that can be taken to maintain the current blockade for several months while minimizing the impact on American consumers if necessary." 2. Stating that the blockade on Iran will not be lifted until the nuclear issue is resolved—Trump stated that the maritime blockade would not be lifted until a nuclear agreement with Iran is reached. He claimed the blockade is "more effective than bombing," that Iranians are "suffocating like fat pigs," and warned that "they cannot have nuclear weapons," as Iran hopes to reach a reconciliation. 3. Will hear new military proposals regarding Iran: including strong strikes and control of the Strait—Insiders said Trump will hear about potential new military action plans regarding Iran on Thursday. It is reported that the Central Command has prepared a "short and powerful" strike plan. Another plan involves controlling parts of the Strait of Hormuz to restore shipping, which may involve ground troops. 4. Responded to by the Iranian Speaker: Oil wells haven't exploded, oil prices will explode—Trump previously warned that Iran's oil storage capacity would run out in three days, and oil wells would explode due to pressure. Iranian Speaker of Parliament Ghalibaf mocked in a post: Three days have passed, and the oil wells haven't exploded! He suggested extending it to 30 days and live-streaming the oil wells, claiming oil prices will exceed $140. 5. Strongly supports UAE's exit from OPEC—On Wednesday, Trump stated that he strongly supports the UAE's decision to exit OPEC, claiming this move will help lower energy prices. He also mentioned, "There are indeed some issues within OPEC." 6. Spoke with Putin for an hour and a half—The Kremlin stated on the 29th that Russian President Putin spoke with Trump for over 1.5 hours. They discussed the Iran issue, as well as economic and energy cooperation. Putin proposed implementing a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine during the Victory Day celebrations on May 9, to which Trump responded positively, believing that an agreement on the Ukraine conflict is imminent. 7. Seemingly made a "ridiculous" verbal slip, confusing Ukraine with Iran—On Wednesday, Trump seemingly confused Ukraine with Iran. When asked which conflict would end first, Trump said it might be about the same time and claimed Ukraine has "failed militarily," but the data he provided pointed to Iran. 8. Mocked Powell for wanting to stay on as a board member: No one else wants him—Powell clearly stated in his last press conference during his term that he would continue to serve on the Federal Reserve Board after his term ends. Trump mocked in a post: "'Too late, Mr. Powell' wants to stay at the Fed because he can't find a job anywhere else—no one wants him." 9. Stated that the U.S. and Iran are in phone negotiations—On the 29th, Trump stated that the U.S. and Iran have been in dialogue, now communicating via phone, no longer needing to "fly 18 hours to see a document," and can know the answer within 15 minutes, although he prefers face-to-face communication. 10. Informed Netanyahu that military actions against Lebanon should be limited to "precision strikes"—On the 29th, Trump revealed that he informed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that the Israeli military's actions in Lebanon should be limited to "precision strikes" and avoid a full resumption of hostilities. 11. May reduce U.S. troops stationed in Germany—On the 29th, Trump stated that the U.S. is studying and reviewing the possibility of reducing troops stationed in Germany, with a decision to be made soon. 12. The $1 million "Trump Gold Card" visa is cold—British media reported that since the U.S. launched the $1 million "Trump Gold Card" visa last year, only 338 people have submitted applications, of which 165 paid the $15,000 visa processing fee, and only 59 have entered the follow-up review stage by the Department of Homeland Security. 13. The first batch of tariff refunds will be issued around May 11—According to a document from the U.S. International Trade Court, the first batch of refunds for tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on imported goods will be issued around May 11. 14. Will release as much information as possible about UFOs—On the 29th, Trump stated during a meeting with the "Artemis 2" mission astronauts at the White House that he will "release as much information as possible about unidentified flying objects (UFOs)" soon. 15. Will sign an executive order to expand retirement savings coverage—White House officials revealed that Trump will sign an executive order on Thursday aimed at expanding access for employees whose employers do not provide retirement savings plans.

Boldly deducing the impact of the Walsh era Federal Reserve on the financial markets and BTC, ETH in the second half of this year Walsh's tenure + Trump's pressure + high oil prices): Walsh's main line: simultaneous rate cuts + balance sheet reduction, weakening forward guidance, data dependence, emphasizing independence[]. Macroeconomic environment: high oil prices + sticky inflation + economic resilience → fewer rate cuts than market expectations, continuous balance sheet reduction. Traditional markets: US Treasury long end strong, dollar weak then strong, US stocks structurally differentiated, commodities strong, gold strong[]. BTC/ETH: fluctuating upward, increased volatility, BTC stronger than ETH, new highs expected in the second half; rhythm: pressure in July-August, turning point in September, main upward wave from October to December. 1. The Walsh era Federal Reserve: core policy combination (second half of 2025) 1. Walsh's core three-pronged approach (immediately implemented after taking office) Simultaneous rate cuts + balance sheet reduction (loose price, tight quantity) Rate cuts: no action in July, 25bp cuts in September and November. Balance sheet reduction: from passive to active, reducing the balance sheet by $60 billion per month (currently about $30 billion), aiming to reduce the balance sheet by $1 trillion within a year (equivalent to a 50bp rate hike). Logic: balance sheet reduction pressures long-term inflation, rate cuts lower short-term financing costs, responding to Trump's demand for rate cuts while maintaining independence[]. Abolishing the dot plot + weakening forward guidance No longer "painting a pie" for the market, "data-dependent" at every meeting, walking while watching. Impact: market volatility ↑, expectations unstable, short-term trading becomes difficult, long-term funds dominate. New inflation framework: focusing on "trimmed mean PCE" Excluding extreme fluctuations like energy, core inflation readings are lower and easier to cut rates. However, with high oil prices persisting, headline CPI fluctuates, limiting the space for rate cuts. 2. Trump factor: strong pressure for rate cuts + Middle East geopolitical disturbances Public pressure: demanding rates below 1%, threatening to change personnel, frequently attacking on Twitter[]. Substantial impact: Walsh's verbal compliance, conservative actions → rate cut pace slower than Trump expected, faster than Powell's era[]. Middle East: continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil price center at $105–115, inflation hard to decrease, low ceiling for rate cuts. 3. Federal Reserve rhythm in the second half of 2025 (timeline) July: maintain status quo, state "data-dependent, ready to cut rates", slightly hawkish. August: oil prices surge + inflation rebounds, market rate cut expectations cool, volatility increases. September: first rate cut of 25bp, while announcing accelerated balance sheet reduction, "hawkish rate cut", long bond yields fall then rise. October: sticky inflation + economic resilience, market expects another cut in November, risk assets rebound. November: another cut of 25bp, hinting that "rate cuts are nearing the end", slightly hawkish conclusion. December: maintain status quo, emphasizing "balance sheet reduction continues, rates maintained at high levels for long enough". 2. Impact on traditional financial markets 1. Bond market: long end strong, curve steepening Short end (2 years): declines with rate cuts, 3.8%→3.2%. Long end (10 years): balance sheet reduction + sticky inflation, fluctuating between 4.4%→4.7%, hard to break 5%. Curve: bear steepening (short rates down, long rates stable), favorable for banks and real estate, unfavorable for high valuation growth[]. 2. Dollar: weak then strong, center elevating July-August: rate cut expectations + Walsh uncertainty, dollar 103→101[]. After September: hawkish rate cuts + balance sheet reduction + high rates for longer, dollar 101→106, year-end center 104[]. 3. Stock market: structural differentiation, strong energy/gold, weak growth Under pressure: technology/AI, high valuation consumption, long bond sensitive sectors (high rates, tight liquidity) []. Benefiting: oil and gas, energy equipment, gold, commodities, banks, value stocks (inflation hedge, steepening yield curve) []. Index: US stocks fluctuating weakly, increased volatility. 4. Crude oil: strong upward movement, center elevating Crude oil: $105–120, center at $110, supported by geopolitical + supply-demand gap. 3. Impact on BTC/ETH (second half of 2025, core conclusion: first suppressed then rising, fluctuating upward, BTC stronger than ETH) 1. Transmission chain (Walsh + Trump + oil prices) High oil prices → sticky inflation → fewer rate cuts + balance sheet reduction → tight liquidity → pressure in July-August; September hawkish rate cuts + liquidity expectation recovery + safe-haven demand → wave[]. Turning point; from October to December, rate cuts implemented + institutional funds entering + supply-demand after halving → main upward wave. 2. Price range and rhythm (baseline 70%) BTC (second half of 2025) July-August: under pressure and fluctuating, range $58,000–68,000, center $63,000 (high inflation + balance sheet reduction expectations suppressing) []. September: turning point rebound, rate cuts + balance sheet reduction implemented, safe-haven funds flowing in, range $68,000–78,000[]. October-December: main upward wave, institutional ETF continuous inflow + supply-demand tight after halving + macro uncertainty, range $78,000–95,000, year-end center $85,000, high probability of new highs[]. ETH (second half of 2025, weaker than BTC) July-August: $2,600–3,200, center $2,900 (low DeFi activity, funds leaning towards BTC) []. September: $3,200–3,800, rebound lagging behind BTC[]. October-December: $3,800–4,800, year-end center $4,300 (post-merge narrative + slow institutional fund entry) []. 3. Key catalysts (led by Walsh + Trump) September FOMC: hawkish rate cuts + accelerated balance sheet reduction, market interprets as "bad news out of the way", BTC/ETH rebound starts[]. Trump tweets: Middle East conflict escalates → oil prices break $120 → BTC short-term sharp drop followed by enhanced safe-haven attributes, rapid rebound; rate cut pressure → liquidity expectations improve → direct rebound[]. Institutional funds: continuous net inflow into BTC ETF, slow expansion of ETH ETF, long-term allocation funds support limited downside[]. 4. Three scenarios Baseline (70%): BTC $58,000–95,000, ETH $2,600–4,800, first suppressed then rising, fluctuating upward, BTC stronger than ETH[]. Optimistic (15%): Middle East easing + Walsh exceeding expectations for easing, BTC $95,000–110,000, ETH $4,800–5,800[]. Pessimistic (15%): conflict escalation + Walsh facing resistance, rate cuts delayed, BTC $52,000–58,000, ETH $2,200–2,600[].

Boldly speculate on the oil price trend for the next month and its impact on the financial market and BTC, ETH. "With oil prices fluctuating at high levels, initially suppressed then rising, and liquidity dominating BTC/ETH," combined with **Trump (Middle East blockade + strong pressure to cut interest rates + energy intervention) and Walsh (taking office in May, balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts in parallel, weakening forward guidance) conclusions: oil price center moves up, volatility increases; financial market "hawk-dove tug-of-war"; BTC/ETH's fluctuation range expands, turning points advance, and rebounds become stronger. 1. Oil prices in the next 30 days (5/1–5/31): Trump directly raises volatility and the center 1. Core influence of Trump Middle East blockade intensifies (4/29): Continued blockade of Iran, prohibition of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, about 30% of global seaborne crude oil is obstructed, and the supply gap expands to 12 million barrels/day, strongly bullish for oil prices. Verbal pressure on oil prices: openly favoring $40–50/barrel, but lacking substantial production capacity (U.S. shale has limited short-term increments), divergence between words and actions → market volatility amplifies. Energy intervention: invoking the Defense Production Act to release U.S. energy, but difficult to offset the Middle East gap in the short term, only slightly suppressing the upward space. Negotiation fluctuations: sometimes talking about "ceasefire," sometimes "long-term blockade," with geopolitical risk premiums continuing to rise in early May[]. 2. Walsh (monetary policy → dollar → oil prices) Walsh takes office in mid-May, "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts" in parallel: short-term dollar weakens, real interest rates decline, and commodity (including crude oil) valuations rise. Weakened forward guidance, data dependence: policy uncertainty ↑ → dollar volatility ↑ → oil price volatility ↑. 3. Adjusted oil price trend (baseline 70%) Range: Brent $102–120/barrel, center $110 (originally $105). Rhythm: 5/1–5/12: Strong upward movement (continuation of blockade + Walsh confirming expectations), hitting $115–120. 5/13–5/22: High-level fluctuations (Walsh's appointment + Trump's verbal cooling), range $105–115. 5/23–5/31: Mild retreat (marginal export recovery + high-level demand suppression), falling to $102–108, difficult to break $100 (cost + geopolitical support). Scenarios: Optimistic (15%): U.S.-Iran ceasefire + UAE increased production, $95–105. Pessimistic (15%): Escalation of conflict + complete blockade of the Strait, $120–130. 2. Trump's strong pressure + Walsh's "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts," tug-of-war 1. Inflation and monetary policy Oil prices → inflation rebound (CPI 3.5%+), hawks oppose interest rate cuts; but Trump publicly pressures (demanding rates below 1%) + Walsh firmly supports rate cuts, May FOMC "hawk-dove tug-of-war." Walsh's path: Maintain interest rates in May + release signals for June rate cuts + gradual balance sheet reduction starting in June (monthly $30 billion). Market pricing: 10-year U.S. Treasury yield 4.4%–4.7% (fluctuating upward), dollar index 103–105 (weak first then strong, weakening in the early days of Walsh's appointment). 2. Stock market differentiation intensifies Under pressure: growth/technology, high-valuation consumption (high rates + inflation squeezing profits). Benefiting: oil and gas, energy equipment, gold, commodities (inflation hedging + geopolitical safe haven). Index: U.S. stocks fluctuate weakly, volatility amplifies. 3. Commodities and foreign exchange Commodities: crude oil, refined oil, natural gas strong; industrial metals (copper and aluminum) fluctuate at high levels, demand side under pressure; Foreign exchange: dollar weak first then strong; non-dollar currencies (euro, yen) under pressure; resource country currencies (CAD, AUD) relatively resilient. 3. BTC/ETH: Liquidity expectations dominate, range expands, turning points advance, rebounds become stronger 1. Transmission chain of Trump + Walsh Short-term (5/1–5/15): High oil prices → inflation rebound → hawks resist rate cuts → liquidity tightens → BTC/ETH under pressure; but Trump's strong pressure for rate cuts + expectations of Walsh taking office → limited downside[]. Mid-term (5/16–5/31): Walsh officially takes office → "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts" implemented → liquidity expectations recover → risk assets rebound; balance sheet reduction (tight long end) + interest rate cuts (loose short end) → growth stocks and crypto assets relatively benefit[]. Additional impact: Trump uncertainty ↑ → safe-haven funds flow into BTC (enhanced digital gold attributes). 2. Adjusted price range and rhythm (baseline 70%) BTC: 5/1–5/15: Under pressure and fluctuating, range $58,000–68,000 (originally $62,000–68,000, lower limit moved down). 5/16–5/31: Stabilizing rebound, range $68,000–75,000 (originally $68,000–72,000, upper limit moved up). Center: $68,000, initially suppressed then rising, volatility amplifies. ETH: 5/1–5/15: Weaker than BTC, range $2,600–3,200 (originally $2,800–3,200, lower limit moved down). 5/16–5/31: Rebound lags, range $3,200–3,800 (originally $3,200–3,600, upper limit moved up). Center: $3,200, BTC strong, ETH weak pattern continues. 3. Key catalysts 5/6 FOMC: Powell's last meeting, maintaining interest rates unchanged + hawkish statements (short-term bearish); but releasing June rate cut expectations (mid-term bullish). 5/11–5/15: Walsh officially takes office, delivers first speech, confirming "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts" path (key turning point, bullish). Trump tweets: Middle East situation, pressure for rate cuts, crypto-related statements (could trigger volatility at any time). 4. Scenarios Optimistic (15%): U.S.-Iran ceasefire + Walsh exceeds expectations for easing, BTC $75,000–80,000, ETH $3,800–4,400. Pessimistic (15%): Escalation of conflict + Walsh facing resistance, rate cuts delayed, BTC $52,000–58,000, ETH $2,200–2,600. 4. Trading and allocation insights Oil prices: Buy on dips in early May (102–105), take profit at 115+; in mid to late May, buy back in batches at 102–105, reduce positions at 110+. Traditional finance: Overweight energy, gold, cash; underweight growth, high-valuation consumption; gradually increase positions in interest rate-sensitive sectors (real estate, utilities) starting mid-May. BTC/ETH: Reduce positions on highs from 5/1–5/15, buy back in batches at $58,000–62,000; after 5/16, mainly hold, gradually take profit at $72,000+; ETH relatively underweight, BTC as the main focus.

Stablecoin Sector Daily Briefing April 30, 2026 • U.S. senators push the "Clarity Act" into review stage, alleviating banking concerns over stablecoin yields. • Visa expands its stablecoin settlement network to 9 blockchains, with an annualized scale reaching $7 billion, making Polygon the largest USD stablecoin payment network. • The Hong Kong Monetary Authority issues the first batch of stablecoin licenses, with HSBC and Diginex set to issue a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin, while warning about the risks of fake stablecoins. • Circle partners with Mesh to enhance USDC cross-chain settlements, covering over 900 million users globally. • Hang Seng Electronics reports a staggering 342.87% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2026, benefiting from investment income of 133 million yuan. • Tether launches a self-custody wallet, tether.wallet, and initiates a Bitcoin faucet, with Bitcoin holdings surpassing 97,000 coins. • Circle receives increased investment from Dongfang Harbor Overseas Fund, with a market value exceeding $300 million. • Paxos integrates with Toku to launch an interest-embedded stablecoin payroll feature, with 39% of global respondents earning income through stablecoins. • Ripple collaborates with OKX to launch the RLUSD stablecoin, expanding market competition against USDT and USDC.

I. Core Conclusions from the Federal Reserve Meeting (FOMC on April 29, 2026) Interest Rate Decision: Maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, unchanged for the third consecutive time, with a vote of 8:4 (increased divergence) []. Core Tone: Higher for Longer, with expectations for rate cuts in 2026 reduced to a maximum of once (25bp), earliest in September, or possibly no cuts throughout the year. Inflation Assessment: Inflation remains high, partly influenced by rising oil prices due to the Middle East situation, reaffirming the 2% inflation target, no cuts until the target is met []. Economic Evaluation: The economy is expanding steadily; job growth is weak, and the unemployment rate is stabilizing; the Middle East situation is the biggest uncertainty []. Balance Sheet Reduction Policy: Maintain a monthly reduction of $30 billion in Treasury bonds, expected to end around October, with tight signals unchanged. II. Full Policy Statement (Condensed Bilingual Version) Federal Reserve (FOMC) Policy Statement on April 29, 2026 Economic activity is expanding steadily; job growth is weak, and the unemployment rate has remained stable in recent months; inflation is high, partly reflecting rising global energy prices, Committee Goals: Full employment + 2% inflation; the worsening situation in the Middle East adds uncertainty to the outlook, focusing on the dual risks of the dual mandate []. Maintain the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%; future adjustments will be cautiously assessed based on data, outlook, and risk balance; a firm commitment to 2% inflation Continuously monitor the impact of information on the economic outlook; adjust policies as necessary to achieve goals. Voting Results In Favor (8 members): Powell, Williams, Barr, Bowman, Cook, Jefferson, Paulson, Waller [__LINK_ICON]. Against (4 members): Milan (advocating a 25bp rate cut); Harmack, Kashkari, Logan (opposing the dovish tone). III. Key Interpretations from Powell's Press Conference (April 30, early morning) 1. Inflation: Stickiness exceeds expectations, high threshold for rate cuts Core PCE inflation expectations revised up to 2.7% (previously 2.4%), far above the 2% target. Clearly stated: No conditions for rate cuts in April-May, first rate cut window in September-October, depending on inflation data. Oil Price Shock: Middle East conflict raises oil prices, significant inflation upside risk, and does not rule out resuming rate hikes (non-standard scenario). 2. Employment: Strong resilience, no downward pressure Employment shows a weak balance of "low hiring, low layoffs," with the unemployment rate stable around **4.4%**, no signs of deterioration. The job market is neither hot nor cold, no need for rate cuts to support it, focusing on curbing inflation. 3. Policy Path: Bi-directional openness, data-dependent Refuses to commit to rate cuts, emphasizes "no preset path," everything depends on data. Subtle wording adjustment: Removed "additional adjustments," suggesting the next step could be either an increase or a decrease, indicating a bi-directional risk in policy. 4. Balance Sheet Reduction: Clear end pace, ending in October Maintain a monthly reduction of $30 billion in Treasury bonds, MBS reduction continues, QT to end in October. The balance sheet is about $6.5 trillion, and after the end, it will shift to technical purchases to maintain stable reserves. 5. Power Transition: Powell's farewell, Waller to take office This is Powell's last time presiding over the FOMC, retiring on May 15, with Waller taking over in June. Waller advocates for "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" to proceed in parallel, with long-term balance sheet reduction to below $3 trillion, difficult to be aggressive in the short term. IV. Market Impact and Interpretation 1. Dollar and U.S. Treasuries Dollar: Hawkish statements support a short-term strengthening of the dollar, with the index possibly returning to 106+. U.S. Treasuries: Delayed rate cut expectations, long-end yields rising, with the 10-year possibly breaking 4.5%. 2. Stock Market and Gold U.S. Stocks: High rates suppress growth stocks, with AI and value stocks diverging, short-term volatility downward. Gold: Unchanged rates + inflation concerns, short-term volatility, difficult to surge, focusing on September rate cut signals. 3. Global and China Global: Dollar repatriation, emerging markets under pressure, capital outflow + currency depreciation risks rising. China: High U.S. rates increase the independent easing space for Chinese monetary policy, opening a window for reserve requirement and interest rate cuts; the yuan is under short-term pressure, fluctuating between 7.2-7.3. V. Core Summary and Outlook One-sentence summary: Rates unchanged, hawkish tone, delayed rate cuts, balance sheet reduction nearing end, power transition. Policy Logic: Inflation stickiness + economic resilience + Middle East risks, the Fed chooses "higher for longer" to avoid repeating the stagflation of the 1970s. Outlook: The June FOMC may remain unchanged, with September being a key window; if core PCE falls below 2.3%, a 25bp rate cut may be initiated; otherwise, no rate cuts throughout the year. Do you need me to condense the above interpretations into a one-page key conclusion and timeline for quick review?

As of 2026-04-29 23:00 (UTC+8), the core conclusions from the past 24 hours are: Middle East deadlock + UAE exits OPEC + Bank of Japan hawkish stance + super central banks preemptively hedging, leading to a global decline in risk assets, a surge in oil prices, and a strengthening of the dollar; BTC/ETH have retreated from highs, showing a bearish oscillation. 1. Major events in the past 24 hours (4/28 23:00–4/29 23:00) 1) Geopolitics: Middle East crisis escalates (strongest mainline) Iran submits a "three-step" negotiation proposal: first ceasefire, then discuss Strait navigation, and finally discuss the nuclear program. The U.S. directly vetoes, insisting that nuclear issues must take priority; U.S.-Iran talks are at a standstill. The risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz surges, with about 30% of global oil transport obstructed. U.S. Treasury Department ban: prohibits U.S. individuals/entities from paying navigation fees to Iran, further escalating tensions[]. 2) Energy supply: UAE announces exit from OPEC+, oil prices jump UAE officially announces: will exit OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1, significantly weakening the organization's pricing power[]. World Bank (4/28): Energy prices expected to surge by 24% in 2026, with Brent crude averaging $86 per barrel[]. Market: Brent breaks $111 per barrel (+2.1%), WTI breaks $105, reaching a new high for the year[]. 3) Central banks and macro: Super central banks on the eve, hawkish expectations rise Bank of Japan (4/28): maintains 0.75% unchanged, but significantly raises inflation expectations (1.9%→2.8%), lowers growth (1.0%→0.5%), signaling a rate hike to 1.0% in June, leading to accelerated withdrawal of yen arbitrage funds from risk assets[]. U.S. April consumer confidence: 92.8 (expected 89.4), a new high for the year, reinforcing expectations of "high inflation + high interest rates for longer"[]. IMF (4/29): Global growth forecast for 2026 revised down to 3.1%; if oil prices persist, it may drop to 2.5%, with inflation possibly reaching 5.4%. Key schedule (4/30 early morning): Federal Reserve FOMC decision + Powell's last press conference + Waller's nomination vote (hawkish, balance sheet reduction stance). 4) Technology and earnings reports: Four tech giants report after hours, tech stocks under pressure Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta will release Q1 earnings after the U.S. East Coast market closes on 4/29, with the market being cautious at high levels, leading to a general decline in tech stocks[__LINK_ICON]. 2. Impact on global financial markets 1) Major asset performance (24h) Stocks: U.S. stock indices fluctuate and retreat (-0.8%~-1.5%); Asia-Pacific declines broadly (Nikkei -1.2%, A-shares -0.9%); risk aversion dominates[]. Bonds: U.S. Treasury yields rise (10Y → 4.78%), with high inflation + hawkish expectations suppressing bond prices. Commodities: Oil surges (+2.1%); gold oscillates at high levels ($4,870 per ounce), with risk aversion and rising real interest rates hedging each other. Forex: The dollar index strengthens (105.8 → 106.5); the yen appreciates slightly due to rate hike expectations. 2) Core logic chain Middle East deadlock → oil price surge → inflation expectations rise → central banks maintain high interest rates/delay rate cuts → growth stocks and risk asset valuations under pressure → funds shift to dollar, oil, gold for hedging. 3. Impact on BTC/ETH (as of 4/29 23:00) 1) Price snapshot (24h) BTC: $75,800 (-1.3%), intraday high $81,000, low $74,200, showing a clear retreat from highs and significant long liquidation. ETH: $2,285 (-1.1%), relatively weak compared to BTC, with outflows from DeFi and institutional funds. Fear and Greed Index: 26 (fear), significantly down from yesterday's 33. 2) Key drivers (mainly bearish) Macro liquidity tightening: Japan's hawkish rate hike signals trigger liquidation of yen arbitrage funds, with high-leverage crypto assets being the first to bear the brunt. Misalignment of risk aversion logic: the current market prefers traditional safe-haven assets like the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and oil, with BTC's "digital gold" attribute temporarily weakened. Super central banks preemptively hedging: Waller's hawkish expectations + the Fed maintaining high interest rates lead institutions to reduce positions for hedging, with ETFs experiencing continuous net outflows. Derivatives pressure: BTC at high levels ($79k–$81k) sees $430 million in long liquidations, triggering a chain of stop-losses. 3) Support and resistance (short-term) BTC: support at $74,000–$75,000; resistance at $77,800–$78,500. ETH: support at $2,220–$2,250; resistance at $2,350–$2,380. 4) Follow-up points of interest (within 48h) 4/30 early morning: Fed decision + Waller's vote; if hawkish outcomes materialize, BTC/ETH may test support zones. Oil price transmission: if Brent stabilizes above $110, inflation expectations may further rise, putting continued pressure on crypto assets. 4. Brief summary The past 24 hours have been centered around the Middle East deadlock + energy supply shocks + central bank hawkish expectations, leading to a global decline in risk assets, with oil and the dollar strengthening; BTC/ETH have retreated from highs, and sentiment has turned to fear, showing a short-term bearish oscillation, with a focus on the Fed's decision and Waller's vote results on 4/30 early morning.

Powell's "final battle," what should you really be watching for at night? (The FOMC on April 28-29, 2026) This meeting is the last FOMC meeting during Chairman Powell's term, which officially ends on May 15; the core conclusion is preemptive: interest rates remain unchanged, the real game is not about rate cuts, but about the characterization of inflation, the pace of balance sheet reduction, the direction of policy changes, and oil price risks. 1. Core foundational data Current benchmark interest rate range: 3.50%–3.75% Historical path: Peak of 5.25%–5.50% in July 2023 → multiple rate cuts landing in 2025 to the current range Consensus expectation for this decision: maintain interest rates unchanged, no rate hikes, no rate cuts Key background: rising inflation stickiness, increasing oil prices, overlapping pressure from leadership changes, policy entering a "high interest rate maintenance period" 2. What you don't need to watch (no game, no variables) Policy benchmark interest rate: completely locked in unchanged, no unexpected space Latest dot plot/economic forecast: no updates from this meeting, March guidance is the only reference Immediate short-term shift: Powell will not forcefully ease or tighten at the curtain call 3. The four core variables you must closely monitor (determining global asset pricing for the next six months) 1. Meeting statement + press conference wording: hawkish-dovish shift is the first signal March was dovish: acknowledged inflation decline, moderate economic slowdown Potential changes this time: Whether to remove the statement "inflation continues to cool" Whether to add "inflation upside risks are increasing, oil price shocks are persistent" Policy wording revised from "moderately accommodative expectations" to maintaining restrictive rates for a longer time Impact: hawkish wording shift → significant postponement of rate cut expectations (from mid-year to year-end or even cancellation) 2. Details on balance sheet reduction QT (core liquidity) Current balance sheet reduction pace: has reduced Treasury and MBS monthly holding limits Core highlights: Clarify the QT termination timeline (market consensus expects Q4 2026) Whether to further slow the pace of balance sheet reduction, or to terminate passive reduction early Logic: early termination of balance sheet reduction = marginal easing of dollar liquidity, favorable for growth assets and commodities; continued reduction would suppress risk assets 3. Federal Reserve power transition (medium to long-term policy landscape) Timeline: Powell steps down as chairman on May 15, Walsh is the core candidate for succession Two key questions: ① After Powell steps down, will he remain a Federal Reserve governor until 2028? ② Powell's policy orientation for the next team: will it weaken the Fed's independence and cater to the administration's low interest rate demands? Far-reaching impact: remaining = strong continuity of monetary policy; complete departure = significant increase in subsequent policy uncertainty 4. Energy + inflation characterization: distinguish between "short-term shocks" & "long-term pressures" Current reality: Middle East situation drives oil prices higher, directly transmitting to consumer and industrial inflation Key question: How does Powell define this round of oil price increases? If characterized as a short-term supply shock: monetary policy will not tighten passively, market sentiment stabilizes If characterized as persistent inflation risks: directly locks in rate cuts for the year, even restarting discussions on rate hikes 4. Simplified market linkage logic Hawkish wording + high inflation risk recognition → U.S. Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens, growth sectors of the stock market come under pressure Slowing balance sheet reduction/early end + continuous policy signals → liquidity easing, risk assets warm up Rising uncertainty in leadership changes → global risk aversion sentiment rises, gold and U.S. Treasuries' safe-haven attributes strengthen 5. One-sentence ultimate summary Don't watch interest rates, watch the wording; don't watch rate cuts, watch inflation resilience; don't watch short-term policies, watch the leadership change landscape. Powell's final battle is not a farewell market, but rather sets the core policy tone for global interest rates, the dollar, and commodities in the second half of 2026.