币圈“巴菲特”

I have a particularly strong premonition lately— the world is about to collapse. From May to June, U.S. stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies will all plummet, and it will be a massive crash. The root cause is simple: oil prices are too high. At $100 a barrel, the world can't handle it. Many countries' strategic reserves are nearly depleted. Iran's oil can't be shipped out, the tanks are all full, and the only option left is to cut production. Even if things return to normal across the Strait, it will take a long time for production to recover. As long as oil prices stay at $100 for another month or two, a bunch of small countries will face direct economic collapse. Surely someone will say: What does it matter to the U.S. if small countries collapse? I can only say that the global economy is like grasshoppers on a rope. The chips used for AI are made in South Korea and Taiwan, and the raw materials for those chips come from Japan... If one link breaks, everything breaks. Americans can't withstand $100 oil prices either, Trump is constantly shouting and sending messages, trying every way to push oil prices down. Short now, wait two months, and you can look forward to the young models at the club.

Powell's "Last Dance": Hawkish Stance Under the Shadow of Stagflation 1️⃣ Core Tone: Holding Steady, but the Winds Have Changed In the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, Powell will preside over his last interest rate meeting in office. The market expects interest rates to be firmly locked in at 3.50%–3.75%. The focus this time is not on whether to cut rates, but rather that the expectations for rate cuts are being thoroughly crushed. The risk of stagflation leaves the Federal Reserve with no room to discuss easing. 2️⃣ Macro Dilemma: Four Shocks in Five Years, Inflation Hard to Tame Over the past five years (pandemic, Russia-Ukraine, tariffs, Middle East), supply shocks have not ceased. Although each was viewed as a "one-time event," the cumulative effect has caused inflation to deviate from the 2% target for five consecutive years. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up energy costs, and it may take at least a year for inflation to fall back to 2%; the shadow of 1970s stagflation is no longer a joke. 3️⃣ Internal Struggle: Consensus Shift from "Dove" to "Hawk" Attitude Reversal: Last year, board member Waller supported rate cuts, but this month he has turned cautious, stating, "If this continues, who will still believe our promises?" Reality Dilemma: New York Fed President Williams admits that "inflation is rising," not falling. The previous idea of using rate cuts to offset rising real interest rates has been shelved. 4️⃣ Key Focus: The "Line of Life and Death" in Statement Wording The biggest suspense of the meeting is whether the phrase "the next action is more likely to be a rate cut" will be removed from the statement. 🦅 Hawkish: Wants to remove it, implying equal probabilities for rate hikes and cuts. Powell: Likely to choose "vague," making no radical changes, leaving the tough questions for his successor Kevin Warsh after he steps down on May 15. 5. Market Impact: High Rates Will Become the New Normal Powell's farewell means that "Higher for Longer" officially becomes the baseline scenario. For Bitcoin and risk assets, the liquidity environment remains tight before the Federal Reserve fully pivots, and caution is needed regarding profit-taking pressure at high levels. What you think is ultimately just what you think, because your considerations are subjective and overlook objective laws. #鲍威尔4·29议息：任期收官之战 $BTC $ETH $SOL @OKX中文 @OKX星球 @八喜Zora_OKX @可乐Cola_OKX @米妮Minnie_OKX

$ZKJ plummeted 232 times before a violent rebound, can we chase this wave? Brothers, $ZKJ has been quite active these days, rising from a low of 0.01U to 0.049U, rebounding several times. But I need to pour some cold water on this: First, let's look at the data: The historical high of 2.32U dropped to a low of 0.01U, which is a drop of 232 times. The current price of 0.038U is still only 1.6% of the high, still at the "ankle cut" position. Why the sudden surge? 1. Oversold rebound From 2.32, it fell to 0.01, the drop was too deep, and there is a technical need for recovery. 2. Riding the wave of the ZK track Recently, the concept of zero-knowledge proofs (ZK) has warmed up, and although $ZKJ has changed its name, it has caught some of the heat. 3. Small market cap is easy to manipulate Currently, the circulating market value is only 7-12 million USD, and a few hundred thousand dollars can trigger a wave. This is not a reversal, but a self-indulgence of the funds in the market. What’s next? Short-term temptation, huge risks. 1. Heavy trapped positions above From 0.038 upwards, 0.05 and 0.1 are all dense trapped areas. Once it rebounds, there will be a lot of selling pressure. Want to break even? Difficult. 2. Fundamentals remain unchanged The previous flash crash event (an 80% drop in one day) has left the community with no confidence, and the label is still "high-risk shitcoin." 3. Operation suggestions Holders: This rebound is an opportunity to exit. Those wanting to chase: Absolutely don’t! It’s too close to the previous low of 0.01, and once it pulls back, it’s a halving. If it breaks below 0.025, it’s highly likely to test the bottom again. Personally, I think this is a "flash in the pan," not a "bull market return." Without trading volume support and substantial good news, all rises should be seen as a wave to escape. High volatility, small market cap, the risk of going to zero is extremely high. If you want to play, use money you can afford to lose, and be prepared for a 50% drop at any time.

A bull market is when it makes you feel like it’s not a bull market, you don’t believe a bull market is coming, you don’t believe in the rise, and that’s when the bull market arrives. A bear market is when it makes you feel like it won’t drop, it won’t break down, I don’t believe it will fall, and that’s when the bear market comes. Look at the current situation. Everyone analyze it. #白宫预告战略BTC储备重大公告 @OKX星球 $BTC $ETH

BTC Market Insights: The Divine is the Law, the Savior is Yourself The Divine is the Way, the Way is natural, as it comes. There is no savior in the market; the only thing that can save you is the understanding of the laws. 1️⃣ The Current "Situation": The 80,000 Threshold, Diverse Lives At this moment, BTC is at the gates, once again knocking on the door of $80,000. A 16% increase since April may seem like a celebration of K-lines, but in reality, it is the laws filtering the crowd. Strong Players: They focus on the objective laws behind geopolitical easing and ETF net inflows. They know that price is just the result; funds and emotions are the cause. Weak Players: They pray for a "savior" while staring at the market, hoping a single bullish candle will change their fate. This is a weak culture, a dependency on the hope of extraordinary gains. 2️⃣ Market Perspective: Technology, System, and Culture Ding Yuanying said that there are three layers to perceive society: technology, system, and culture. The same applies to market analysis: 1. Technical Layer (Situation): $79,500 is the current touchstone. A breakthrough opens up space, while a pullback tests patience. This is the most superficial "situation." 2. System Layer (Momentum): Continuous net inflows into spot ETFs indicate that institutions are "voting with their feet." This is the certainty of momentum brought by changes in the rules of the game. 3. Cultural Layer (Root): This is the game of cultural attributes. Do you believe in the "strong culture" of code and mathematics, or the "weak culture" of market makers and news? 3️⃣ Survival Rules: The Gap Between Endurance and Ability The market has never shown mercy to tears. The survival rule is simple: endure what others cannot, and do what others cannot. • Endure: When the price repeatedly hovers below $80,000, can you resist the urge to chase highs and panic sell? • Ability: When others are asking, "Can I buy?" have you already established your own position management and stop-loss discipline? The gap between endurance and ability is your only chance of survival in this market. 4️⃣ The Path to Salvation: Breaking the "Rely" Mentality The distant savior is not in the words of analysts, nor in so-called "insider information." The savior is yourself, your respect for objective laws. If you have not "awakened" or "realized," even if others give you the code, you will not be able to hold it. If you are still "relying" on news or "relying" on others, then you are destined to be the weak one in this game. The Divine is the Way, the Way is the law. The law comes, and it does not allow for your speculation. Those who act according to the law are their own gods. #BTC四年周期 #恐慌贪婪指数 @OKX星球 $BTC $ETH $SOL

The god of the first generation, LetsVPN Fast Connect, the tool that allowed Chinese people to first open the door to the world, quietly comes to an end. It was never perfect, with lag, disconnections, and much controversy, yet it was simple and pure enough. No complicated settings were needed; with one click, you could step out of the walls, becoming the first window for countless people to glimpse the overseas world and look into the distance. The first time seeing the world, the first time logging into foreign cryptocurrency websites, the first time opening YouTube were all accomplished with the help of Fast Connect, marking significant firsts in life. There was no grand farewell, no plot twist, just a powerless continuation, quietly exiting the stage. Over the years, familiar cross-border entrances and old tools have disappeared one by one, like the tide slowly receding. We didn't have time for a proper goodbye; one day we saw the news and suddenly realized that a fragment of an era had vanished. In the future, there may be new tools and new technologies to navigate around, but that initial thrill and freshness of breaking through barriers and seeing the vast world can never return. Full of regrets of youth and the times. #FastConnect exits China $BTC

The White House accelerates strategic BTC reserves, 1 million coins in 5 years? The last chance for retail investors? Will Bitcoin reach 10 million each in the future? 📌 Core viewpoint: The most likely "major announcement" is the dual-track launch of "administrative + legislative" — confirming that existing seized BTC will no longer be sold, while also promoting the ARMA Act to pave the way for purchasing 1 million coins over the next 5 years. Budget neutrality theoretically relies on selling gold certificates, but there is significant resistance in Congress. 🔍 News aspect: Current reserves: The U.S. currently holds about 328,000 seized BTC (worth over $22 billion), and the White House has committed to including them in strategic reserves rather than selling. ARMA Act: The newly proposed "U.S. Reserve Modernization Act" plans to purchase 1 million BTC within 5 years, achieving budget neutrality through the issuance of "gold certificates" without increasing the deficit. Timeline: White House advisor Patrick Witt clearly stated at the Bitcoin 2026 conference that actions will occur "in the coming weeks," coinciding closely with the time window for reintroducing the bill with Congressman Begich. 💡 My view: If the U.S. really does this, El Salvador will likely accelerate its follow-up, Russia may be forced to adjust its strategy, but the EU and China will probably not directly replicate it, instead turning to a stricter compliance framework. #白宫预告战略BTC储备重大公告 @OKX星球 @OKX中文 @八喜Zora_OKX @可乐Cola_OKX @米妮Minnie_OKX @米花Lilac_OKX

Powell's interest rate decision on April 29, the last press conference at 2:30 AM, where will $BTC go? Tomorrow is Powell's "final battle," and it's a done deal that interest rates 💰 will remain unchanged, with a 99% probability, so there's not much suspense. What I'm interested in is his wording and demeanor. I think, with his seasoned politician style, he will likely be "dovish," saying things like "data-dependent" and "closely monitoring," smoothly passing the baton to his successor, Waller. After all, leaving a mess for the successor is not as good as leaving a loose expectation. What about the market impact? Historical data is quite interesting; in the past 9 FOMC meetings, BTC dropped 8 times, showing a tendency of "good news being fully priced in as bad news." So no matter what he says tomorrow, short-term volatility is likely unavoidable. I believe the key support level is around $77,000 - $79,000, which is the holding cost area for many institutions, and it won't be easy to break. Unless old Powell suddenly turns hawkish 🦅 at the last moment and mentions something about oil prices and inflation, then it might test $75,000. In the long run, I'm more concerned about Waller taking office in mid-May. He has clearly stated that digital assets belong to the financial system, and this attitude is very important. This means that future monetary policy may have to consider the liquidity of the crypto market as well. This might be the real beginning of long-term good news.

$BTC is short, not optimistic about the market in the next few days. It's better for everyone to short $ETH, as the altcoin isn't as strong as the main coin. #波动雷达：币种异动观察

$BTC MicroStrategy is really bold, buying more and more Bitcoin 🫓 Just announced the purchase of 3,273 Bitcoins for $255 million! Total holdings exceed 818,334 $BTC At this buying speed, it will soon surpass Satoshi Nakamoto to become the largest institutional holder However: I have to pour cold water on this It seems that institutions are also big retail investors in the face of trends; the crypto world specializes in dealing with all kinds of discontent. First there was Sequoia, then Grayscale, and FTX also collapsed without warning. No one can fight against the cycle As the saying goes, when the time comes, the world works hard, but heroes are not free when luck runs out The biggest difference between institutions and retail investors is that they can withstand the cycle and wait for recovery, while you cannot Cherish your own $BTC #IBIT期权历史性超越Deribit @OKX星球 @可乐Cola_OKX @八喜Zora_OKX @米妮Minnie_OKX