無名先生
無名先生
Main Field|#Airdrops • Financial analyst, information porter!
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📉 Why the stock market might crash:
Part One: Lessons from the 1973 Oil Crisis
The author believes the current situation is similar to 1973:
Back then, global oil supply decreased by about 5–7%, leading to a severe market crash.
Now, about 20% of demand is affected, making the situation worse.
S&P 500 in 1973:
Dropped about 20% after the embargo was announced.
The real crash occurred after the crisis ended (another 40% drop).
👉 Key Point:
Markets usually react with a lag to real economic damage.
Part Two: Risks of Private Credit
Private credit is highly leveraged.
Default rates have risen to about 5.8%.
Investors are withdrawing large amounts of capital.
👉 If these funds encounter problems:
→ Banks will be impacted.
→ It could trigger systemic risk.
Major risk signals:
1️⃣ Oil shock
2️⃣ Inverted yield curve
3️⃣ Large-scale insider selling (⚠️ questionable)
4️⃣ Extreme risk appetite
Historical analogy:
Great Depression
The author believes the current situation is similar to 1929.
👉 Suggested allocation: Gold & Silver
Author's position:
Short S&P 500 at 6400–7100.
Believes it is close to the top.

🚨 BREAKING
🇺🇸 It is reported that before the opening of the US stock market tomorrow, so-called "insiders" are making large purchases of risk assets.
Current data shows:
0 sell orders
917 buy orders
Total transaction volume of approximately $8.91 billion
It looks like the market may be about to experience a surge.
$BTC The current structure looks like this👇
It resembles a Wyckoff distribution
Many people already feel that👇
👉 It's "obvious" that it will drop next
But what the market loves to do is👇
👉 Slap the "obvious" in the face
Conditions for a bullish outlook (breakthrough 80K)
Must hold above 78K–79K (not just a false breakout)
There should be spot trading/ETF inflows during the upward movement
After breaking through 80K, it should not drop below on the pullback (confirming it becomes support)
👉 Only if these conditions are met, is there a chance for a true breakout.

In less than 6 hours, Hyperliquid's trading volume on its sole HIP-4 trading pair ($BTC daily change) has surpassed that of Polymarket.
Polymarket's trading volume is calculated by "shares":
👉 Each trade of 1 share = $1 in trading volume
Therefore:
Polymarket: 79,500 shares
Hyperliquid: 89,253 (corresponding to a higher nominal transaction)


🚨 BREAKING
It is reported that before the opening of the US stock market on Monday, so-called "insiders" are heavily selling off all assets except for oil.
Current data shows:
0 buys
1492 sells
Total transaction volume of approximately $23.76 billion
This does not seem like a good signal for the market.
History Repeats:
When Jerome Powell became the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve in February 2018,
the S&P 500 (SPY) dropped by 4%.
Now the market expects a new chairman to take office,
and the first FOMC meeting will be held in June.
Historical data shows that during the early term of a new chairman,
the market's maximum average drawdown is about -20%.
But it's important to note:
👉 This conclusion is based on historical statistics and is not a certainty.

🚨 BREAKING
🇺🇸 There are rumors that an "insider trader" associated with Donald Trump opened a $40 million short position on Bitcoin before making an important statement today.
It is said that this trader previously predicted all market trends and made over $50 million in profit from just two trades.
He may have some information… 👀


