高俊傑

Observe the pan and enlighten, low position layout Don't chase high, don't panic, and trade rationally Keep your heart in the fluctuations and earn the trend in the cycle

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Recently, this wave of Bitcoin's rebound has finally brought back to life those who have been in a slump for half a year in the crypto space. From a low of $60,000 in February, it has climbed all the way to stabilize above the $80,000 mark, reaching a new high since January this year. Even during the previous geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, its resilience outperformed the U.S. stock market and gold. The long-claimed "digital gold" has truly lived up to its name this time. This surge was not driven by retail investors; there are two solid reasons at its core: first, the U.S. regulatory framework has finally landed, clearly categorizing Bitcoin as a digital commodity, which means it won't be randomly targeted by regulatory bodies anymore. With clearer rules, Wall Street institutions are now willing to invest real money; second, it's a classic case of retail investors cutting losses while institutions buy the dip. Most short-term retail holders have exited, and the Bitcoin spot ETF has ended the long-term outflow of funds, starting to see significant net inflows. Large institutions are quietly accumulating with long-term capital. Now, there's a heated debate in the crypto community, with valid points on both sides. Bulls are betting on the regulatory clarity and the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts this year, with a high probability of reaching over $100,000 by the end of the year; bears are not being alarmist either, as the $80,000 level is filled with trapped positions from those who have been holding for over half a year, creating immense selling pressure to break even. Moreover, recently, large holders have been transferring coins to exchanges in preparation for cashing out, while institutions are pushing prices up while secretly hedging against a downturn, so it's not just mindless bullishness. To be frank, stop asking if it's the right time to enter the market. If you're looking to get rich overnight or double your money quickly, it's better not to come in. Bitcoin has long been recognized by Wall Street as a compliant asset class, and the miraculous bull markets that used to yield tenfold or hundredfold returns are unlikely to happen again. If you have spare money for long-term allocation and can accept a drawdown of over 30% and hold for more than three years, this position is indeed generally recognized by institutions as an undervalued range. But always remember, in China, virtual currency-related activities are clearly classified as illegal financial activities, and risk should always be the top priority. Don't invest money you can't afford to lose, and definitely avoid leverage.

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April Cryptocurrency Market Review: The Truth After Failing to Reach 80,000 As an old investor in the crypto space for 6 years, this April truly played out the "high expectations, harsh reality" scenario. In the first half of the month, BTC surged from 66,000 to 79,450, just a step away from 80,000, with the community buzzing about breaking the previous high. However, when the Federal Reserve made its move, the market quickly turned and dropped to around 76,000, leaving many investors feeling dizzy from the whipsawing. Today, I won't discuss institutional jargon, but rather share core judgments from a real market perspective. This month, two key factors truly influenced the market: First, the Federal Reserve held steady for the third consecutive time, making a rate cut in the first half of the year nearly impossible. Coupled with the nomination of a hawkish chairperson entering a critical vote, the rate cut cycle is likely to be delayed further, which is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the market. Second, global regulation has completely shifted. Hong Kong issued its first batch of stablecoin licenses, and the U.S. digital asset regulatory bill is expected to yield results in May. Don’t think of regulation as a negative; the recent freezing of 344 million USDT has taught us a lesson: compliance is the prerequisite for trillions in institutional funds to enter the market. This is also the core reason why BlackRock's BTC ETF continues to see net inflows during retail panic. The market clearly illustrates the "the strong get stronger" phenomenon: even if BTC corrects, its market cap still holds steady at 60%, with all available funds flocking to the leading assets for safety; ETH and mainstream coins are merely following the upward trend without any downward movement. The earlier hype around the Ethereum ETF has already been fully digested, and without new narratives, there’s no influx of new funds; meme coins and lesser-known altcoins are on a steady decline. Friends of mine who couldn’t resist chasing altcoins this month have mostly ended up with significant losses. Finally, let me share my market judgment, which does not constitute any investment advice, but is purely my honest opinion: In the short term, over the next 1-2 weeks, the market is likely to oscillate widely in the 70,000-80,000 range, making it difficult to break through directly. The biggest variables are the U.S. regulatory bill and the Federal Reserve's statements. If hawkish signals continue to be released, a drop to the strong support at 72,000 cannot be ruled out. Here, I must remind everyone not to recklessly chase altcoins in the short term; funds are all in the leading assets for safety, and altcoins will only follow the downward trend without any upward movement, making the risk of chasing highs extremely high. In the medium to long term, I remain cautiously optimistic. The global trend towards crypto compliance is irreversible, and the crypto space will gradually shift from retail speculation to institutional dominance. The real big market will only come when the Federal Reserve officially cuts rates and liquidity is fully eased. Having been in the crypto space for so many years, I’ve seen too many people become overnight millionaires, only to turn around and lose it all. This month’s market once again reminds us to never earn money outside of our understanding, to avoid chasing highs, to refrain from going all-in, and not to trust calls to chase lesser-known coins. In this highly volatile market, surviving is always more important than making quick money.

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